This is going to be another example of the content that will be featured on the new membership page for 925 Sports.
Week 17 in typical years is one of my most successful slates, as it is a lot of guys we know from the preseason, thus we can apply our preseason DFS analysis into Week 17 for DFS. In recent years however the NFL seems to be "testing" out players earlier and earlier in the year. Take last week for example we know that Will Grier had really looked bad in the preseason (against practice squad players) thus we knew that the Colts D should be in for a good day. This week 17 is a little bit more difficult with the playoff implications at hand, along with that the players we want to target from the preseason are all in really bad match ups. (RG3 this week) Still I do like this slate a lot, and I will be attacking it aggressively.
Slate Confidence Rating: Yellow - Green
Below we start on the write up this week we need to establish some situations that we are avoiding. It sounds like the Bills starters will not be playing the whole game which makes them tough to play. The Vikings have the 5th or 6th seed locked up so it would not surprise me to see them rest their starters somewhat. The Ravens have already told us that they are sitting a lot of their starters. The Saints said they won't rest their starters at all, but I do feel like they could. Just all things to consider this week when making our builds.
· Case Keenum - $4,500 (High Exposure Play): One thing has been clear this year for the Redskins, is that Keenum is currently a better QB than Haskins, the offense actually works like an NFL offense when he is in the game. We get Keenum at basically Min price this week as well. In games that we would have started Keenum in (Plus Match ups), and taking out the games he either got injured or replaced Haskins, He is averaging 19.7 DK points per game. Now that is just a 4 game sample but still a good sign. In week 2 vs the Cowboys Keenum put up 16.74. Keenum just needs to put up 13.5 DK points to hit value which I fully expect him to do this week. The biggest worry with this play is that Terry McLaurin is most likely out this week. Should effect Keenum some what, but that also makes the stack below very cheap!
o Stack With: Keenum, Steven Sims, Kevin Harmon
o Run It Back with: Zeke
· Kyler Murray - $5,500 or Brett Hundley - $4,500 (Mid Exposure Play): The Rams will be without Jalen Ramsey this week, if we remember the Rams really struggled earlier this year when Marcus Peters was their CB one, now they will be without Ramsey, and obviously Peters is playing for the Ravens. This will really help the Cardinals passing game. Also with the Rams out of the playoff mix I feel like they will be less motivated as well. Personally I'd rather see Hundley at QB for the Cards for value reasons. If you followed along in the preseason we saw Hundley outplay Murray. Last week we got to see Hundley again, and he looked good. I do not think we will see a difference in the offense whether its Hundley or Murray for Fantasy Production.
o Stack With: Cards QB + Larry Fitzgerald
· Carson Wentz - $6,100 (Mid Exposure Play): Wentz just keeps delivering in the clutch for the Eagles. He has now had 4 straight games of over 20 DK points with most of the points coming in the 4th quarter. He gets the Giants this week in a must win game. He put up 23.9 DK points against the Giants in week 14. I think we can expect the same production this week.
o Stack With: Wentz, Ward, Goedert*, and Boston Scott
Other QB Plays I like: Ryan Tannehill who just went for 25 DK points against Houston, and has been on a tear this whole year. (Shout out to preseason DFS). Jameis Wintson, and Matt Ryan are both fine GPP plays. Jared Goff is going to be in a great spot, and the game is at home this week. Lastly we get Jacoby Brissett going against one of the worst pass defense lately. Like I said earlier I will be attacking this slate aggressively so I will have a lineup with all of these QBs.
· Aaron Jones - $8,200 (Mid Exposure Play): The only way that I will be paying up for Aaron Jones at this price point is if Jamaal Williams is going to miss, which it looks like he will. We have only seen two games in which Jamaal Williams was injured, and had to miss time either in that game or for a full game. In those two games Aaron Jones is just averaging 42.1 DK ppg. We get Jones in a great match up this week as well. He should be able to go for 20 DK points.
· Joe Mixon - $7,200 (Mid Exposure Play): The tilting news from last week came when we saw that Mixon was going to play sick on Sunday. He went from being a lock to a risky play. Still Mixon ended up with 23 opportunities total. He has now done this for a full month. I think he will get back on track this Sunday against the Browns. In week 14 against the Browns Mixon went for 30.6 DK points.
· Zeke - $8,000 (Low Exposure Play): Zeke has had over 20 opportunities in pretty much every single game this season. He has been more consistent recently going for going for over 15 DK points in every week over the bast 6 weeks. In those 6 weeks he is averaging 22 DK PPG. Zeke faced the Redskins in week 2 and dominated scoring 23 DK points.
· DeAndre Washington - $5,200 (Mid Exposure Play): With Josh Jacobs out Washington was able to deliver last week in the easy match up with a low price point that made him essentially a lock. This week he is only priced up slightly, and I think that is due to the match up. Denvers D has been solid this whole year, but I still think we can expect Washington to see around 20 opportunities making him a great play at this price point.
Damien Williams - $4,700 (High Exposure Play): What sucked about last week is that everyone got to see what we already knew you play the RB 1 for the Chiefs especially when they are priced down. For the whole year I had been saying that the Chiefs would limit McCoy throughout the season, and they have been doing just that. This had lead to Williams going under the radar. Both Darrell Williams and Damien Williams have held value as the RB 1 in this offense. With Darrell now out for the year Williams saw 19 opportunities last week. I think that number will be about the same this week even if McCoy suits up.
· Others Receiving Votes: Justice Hill, Melvin Gordon, Boston Scott, Rojo,and Alvin Kamara.
If/Then Statement: If the Texans Rest their starters than Buddy Howell could be in for a solid day at the RB spot. This is a big ole if though. Could see them Hyde and Duke resting which is why I wanted to bring it up.
Don’t Need to Touch On:
Michael Thomas (Low Exposure Play)
Julio Jones (Stack Play / Mid Exposure Play)
DeVante Adams (High Exposure Play)
DeAndre Hopkins (Mid Exposure Play)
Julian Edelman (Mid Exposure Play)
Robert Woods + Cooper Kupp - $7,000 + $6,800 (Both Mid Exposure Plays): I do really love the idea of stacking Jared Goff with both Woods and Kupp. This should score around 65 DK points total. I like both of these plays because of the match up and recent production. Sure Kupp had 3 games in a row where he literally disappeared but since week 12 he has had double digit fantasy points in each and every start. Now the safer of the two is actually Robert Woods who has seen over 9 targets in every game since week 10. Here are his stats since week including week 10 till now (on average per game). Targets: 11.2, DK Points: 20, Rec: 7.5. The point I am making here is that Woods has been consistent and dominant.
Breshad Perriman - $6,700 (High Exposure Play): The Perriman, Watson, and Winston stack was an easy one last week on the Saturday Slate and I think we can go back to it this week. Each week in the second half of the season Perriman's role has grown. Last week without Evans and Godwin Perriman predictably had a ton of targets and put together a solid DK day going for 20.2 DK points. We have rostered him the last 2 weeks so we are going to do that again this week. It is an easy match up, and is one that he should be able to hit and exceed value. Over the past month Perriman has scored 22 DK PPG.
Jarvis Landry - $5,900 (Low Exposure Play): Landry has been a very safe play this whole year, and the targets have been there every single week. OBJ is currently questionable, and if he sits that should force a few more targets Landry's way as well. He should be able to get double digit fantasy points this week.
Justin Watson - $4,900 (High Exposure Play) Watson will probably end up being my highest owned player on the slate this week. He is second in line for passing targets behind Perriman, and that should continue this week with all the injuries the Bucs have at WR. Watson saw 10 targets and was able to turn that into 15 DK points last week.
Other WRs I really like: Greg Ward should continue to be rostered this is a great spot for him this week and he is still cheap. Steven Sims Jr has gotten a ton of targets the past 3 weeks with 7, 11, and 10. If we can get that many targets out of a player this cheap I will always give that a look. Also if Terry McLaurin is active I will have some of him as well in stacks. John Ross is a player I probably should have included in the write up directly, because when he has operated as the WR #2 in the offense like he got back to last week he has averaged 17.4 DK PPG. He could be very chalky this week however which is why I decided not include him directly in the write up. Chris Hogan is going to be the value play at WR this week as he will be filling in for D.J. Moore. Last week he saw his most snaps of the year which was 74%. He only scored 3.6 DK points last week. Brandon Zylstra is a name some of you might remember from the preseason the last two years. The former CFL start is expected to also fill in for D.J. Moore this week. He is min priced this week on DK, and I think the Panthers will try to get a good look at him in week 17. Larry Fitzgerald is playing in what very well could be his last game ever, seems like he would have extra motivation.
We are waiting on news of Mark Andrews and Zach Ertz. If Andrews sits Hayden Hurst would become intriguing. If Ertz sits we know to play Dallas Goedert at High Exposure if not just locking him into cash. We also get Austin Hooper, and Tyler Higbee in two great spots this week as well. I have both listed as mid exposure plays this week.
Defense this week is interesting I think the Phins at min price is fine this week as a play that won't go negative. The Bears at 2.1 K is definitely too cheap as well. I think if you can pay up for Saints D, or Patriots D that you should. The Packers, Jets, Bucs, and Falcons are all plays that I am looking at on Defense as well. This will be another slate where I just fill in at Defense with which ever salary I have remaining.
Aaron Jones, and Packers D (Mid Exposure)
Winston, Watson, Perriman - Taking it Further = Rojo (Mid Exposure)
Jared Goff, Kupp, Woods, and Higbee (Low Exposure)
Matt Ryan, Julio, and Hooper (Low Exposure)
Keenum, McLaurin*, and S. Sims or Keenum, S. Sims + Harmon (Low Exposure)
Rodgers, Adams, Aaron Jones (Low Exposure)
Wentz, Ward, Goedert (Mid Exposure)
Hundley or Murray, and Fitz (Low Exposure)
*This is the Cash Build that I am on write now as of posting this on Friday. News will change the lineup most likely, and we will have to make changes where we see fit.