NFL DFS Week 8 TNF Showdown: PACKERS VS PANTHERS
47.5 total. Packers -3.5. Green Bay implied 25.5. Carolina implied 22. The chalk is Love 66%, Bryce 61%, Watson 61%, Jacobs 61%, Chuba 49%, Coker 47%, Golden 42%, Tet 33%. Kraft is 14%. Smack is 10%.
This is a shootout on paper. Favor the Packers slightly. There is not a lot of great value on the slate. The soft spots are the running backs. Josh Jacobs is one of the better clicks. People are hesitant because of the Packers line, but that was before he got there. He looked better last week. Seven targets. 18 total opportunities. Panthers give up 127 rush yards and 1.5 rush touchdowns per game. Caleb Williams, Swift, Kyren, Robinson, Judkins, Pierce, and Irving all had production against them. Jacobs is a favorite captain. Aim for 20% in the captain spot.
Matthew Golden is questionable. He played the full game last week at 85% snaps with 12 targets. Expect him to be active. If he is out, that is huge. Savion Williams has been at 53-60% snaps with manufactured touches. Bo Melton steps up. Tucker Kraft already has 80%+ snaps and six targets last week. He would get closer to nine targets. Christian Watson would get a few more. Jacobs would get the football even more. That reduces the chances of being on Love and Watson. If Golden is active, both Packers receivers are the ones to target. Watson is about 12% as a captain. Aim for 15%. Golden is cheap relative to his production. He is the best captain if he is active. Aim for 20%. He is due. He had drops in the Dallas game and last week, but the volume is there. For a typical GPP win, the receiver in the captain spot is the way to go. Jacobs being back hurts Love a decent amount if the Packers can run. That leads to deep shots to Watson and Golden. It is a weird dynamic. Five easy clicks for the Packers if you could get to them. You cannot. If Jacobs is the captain, it almost makes sense not to be on Love. Love has been underappreciated. This feels like a spot to be underweight on him because it is a Jacobs game. If you are on Jacobs as captain, you get Golden or Kraft. Being on two good pass catchers without Love is not ideal. Jacobs could have had two receiving touchdowns last week. He had a drop late. That is a unique stack. This is the difficult part of the slate. It is mostly a guess.
Both kickers are in play. Both offenses can get into scoring position. Both defenses are solid enough that drives stall. Trey Smack has struggled. Ryan Fitzgerald is fine. The game total is 47.5. It feels a little high, but the Jacobs matchup is good. The Packers have not given up a ton to opposing running backs. Gibbs had 100+ on 29 carries and was involved in the receiving game. Chuba needs receiving work if the Panthers are trailing. He had a workhorse workload. 79% snaps prior to the fourth quarter last week.
AJ Dillon was a healthy scratch. Trevor Etienne got some work. Darren Waller was at 60% snaps prior to the fourth quarter. One catch, a touchdown. Tough matchup for tight ends, but one of them scores if the game is high scoring. Tommy Tremble was at 52% snaps. John Metchie is game-script dependent. 55% snaps prior to the fourth quarter. Four targets, two catches, 20 yards. Cheap. Not going to give you a zero. The big three for the Panthers are Bryce, Tet, and Coker. Coker is one of the better captains. 86% snaps prior to the fourth quarter. Only four targets. Jonathan Gannon has been dialed in. Short week is a factor. The Packers got dominated on a short week recently. Want a good floor among the captain choices. Tet is 10%. Coker closer to 15%. Kraft has a path as a captain. Underweight on Love and Bryce as captains. Underweight on Chuba as a captain. Cash leans 4 Packers and 2 Panthers. Cap Jacobs or Golden if active. Love captain needs two Packers pass catchers. Watson or Golden is the one to keep. Kraft is the second. Bryce captain needs two Panthers pass catchers. Coker or Tet is the one to keep. Get to one kicker or one defense. Do not captain a kicker or a defense. $48,000 floor.
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Captain
Josh Jacobs, GB — $13,200 CPT / $8,800 FLEX | 24.2 CPT, 16.1 FLEX | 61% own (Favorite CPT)
Favorite captain. Panthers give up 127 rush yards and 1.5 rush touchdowns per game. He had seven targets and 18 total opportunities last week. Aim for 20% in the captain spot. Cap him. He is 61%.
Matthew Golden, GB — $12,600 CPT / $8,400 FLEX | 20.7 CPT, 13.8 FLEX | 42% own (Core CPT)
Best captain if active. Cheap relative to his production. He had 12 targets last week at 85% snaps. Aim for 20%. He is due. If he is out, this changes the slate.
Christian Watson, GB — $14,700 CPT / $9,800 FLEX | 24.1 CPT, 16.1 FLEX | 61% own (High)
Packers receiver. Captain or flex. He has had eight targets the last three weeks. A lot of air yards. He does not leave the field. Aim for 15% as a captain.
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