PGA Championship 2026: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)
- May 12
- 11 min read
The pricing that we are getting for the PGA Championship makes this a very appealing week for DFS and potentially outright bets. We get a course that we have seen before on the PGA Tour (in 2018 for the BMW Championship) on a course that was designed by Donald Ross. This should lead to the has have some predictability in terms of which golfers are going to be the top plays. Overall this feels like a very top heavy week, and then a lot of other golfers that are grouped together as appealing plays. This will lead me to more of a studs and duds build. With the cut being the top 70 and ties that will only help this build format.
Breaking down my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for this weeks tournament.
*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow / Green
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
I do really like this week due to our ability to do studs and duds builds, as a lot of the golfer this week are underpriced. That being said there is a reason why a lot of the value golfers I will be on our priced that way. It still can be a risky week, but I think there is a decent amount of high upside lineups we can chase.
For betting purposes I think placement bets are the way to go for the most part. Outright wise I see only betting on 5 or so golfers then maybe a live bet or two.
KEY STATS:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Key stats this week are based on the 2018 results for the BMW Championship, typical Donald Ross courses, and the typical PGA Championship key stats.
Birdie to Bogey Ratio (B2B) Key Stat 1
Total Driving (TD) Key Stat 2
Ball Striking (BS) Key Stat 3
Effective Scoring - Combo Stat (ESCR) Key Stat 4
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Comp Course History:
H1: Wyndham Championship 2025
H2: Rocket Mortgage Championship 2025
H3: Tour Championship 2025
H4: PGA Championship 2025
You could also take a look at the 2018 BMW Championship results but I view that more as a "Cherry on Top" type of stat since those results are extremely dated now.
Weather:
Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather
Good weather this week!
BETTING PICKS:
First Round Leader
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.
Matt McCarty 100/1 (Bovada)
Patrick Cantlay 50/1
Si Woo Kim 60/1
Ludvig Aberg 30/1
Bryson 33/1
Rory 20/1
Xander 28/1
Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets
Sungjae Im 1.98/1
Russell Henley 1.85/1
Ryo HIsastune 2.06/1
Matchup Tournament Bets:
Best matchup bet for the week.
More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.
More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting Sheet
Outright Bets:
2023 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.
This is literally my betting card for this week, so I am very pleased to see that the data agrees. A sign of a good week or a trap?
Bets:
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