3M Open 2026: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)
- Jul 21
- 12 min read
The 3M Open is looking like a very fun week this week for DFS and betting. Due to Scottie Scheffler being in the field we are left with Scottie or the field for bets, but I actually think one of the more logic bets on the week ends up being Scottie to have the First Round Lead and Win, or Scottie to go Wire to Wire. This creates a path to extreme value in the outright betting market that we will touch on throughout this writeup. Now you might see the price of Scottie and think that he is tough to get to, but actually my problem has been having too much salary leftover. Again it is looking like a fun week on paper.
*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow/Green
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
The softer pricing that we are getting leads to a lot of great lineup paths again including lineups where you can get to Scottie if you want to do so. My issue has been in regards to fair and balanced builds where I view that we almost have too much value, one of the first builds I made I the week I have $1,000 left over. So to me this is the issue we just have too much value to really dial in on one great build, rather it ends up being a good GPP week because we can make a lot of good builds. Now I really like to get to Troy Merritt in Scottie builds as he is a "local" golfer that have been playing pretty well lately and has course experience. But the lineup below is a situation where I had him, then decided to use the leftover salaries to get to Eckroat and/or Hoge.
As a start to a cash build without Scottie I do like starting out with the 4 below, that being said there are plenty of ways in which I could go from here where I like the lineups a lot but known that I LOVE. For instance Ben Kohles, William Mouw, Mac Meissner, Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen, AJ Ewart, and Zac Blair are all golfers that I somewhat view as the same regardless of their price. I actually feel like I am missing out by not getting to Ewart, Kohles, and Blair as they project to be great values. The issue is I do not see a vast improvement by paying up for them. This week I really like Kitayama but at the same time I do not see a massive difference between him and Conners or Home who are much cheaper. That is not even factoring a young player like Ben James who has been extremely hot recently as well. This is just an example of poor pricing leading to harder decisions.
KEY STATS:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Birdie or Better % (BoB) Key Stat 1
Total Driving (TD) Key Stat 2
Stroked Gained (Many) Water Hazards (SG Water Hazards) Key Stat 3
Strokes Gained Approach (SG AP) Key Stat 4
Par 5 Scoring (Par 5) Key Stat 5
What makes this week fun is the variance that each hole can provide, with a lot of water hazards in play each shot matters. Due to the wind not being a big factor this week it could end up being a little bit more of a bombers course, but the accuracy still matters. Basically golfers can't be too risky, they need to pepper the greens, and give themselves opportunities to score.
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2025, 2024, 2023, and 2022 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Last 4 Years Course History
Weather:
Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather
Weather isn't likely to play a big role.
BETTING PICKS:
First Round Leader
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.
Again I like doing some sort of first round leader and win bet for Scottie.
Jaeger 75/1
Hossler 70/1
Kohles 70/1
Ewart 100/1
Mitchell 45/1
Hideki 45/1
Conners 55/1
Meissner 60/1
Basically all of these golfers are +700 to finish top 5. (I like those odds much better, a lot are also around +500 to top 10)
Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets
Matchup Tournament Bets:
Best matchup bet for the week.
More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.
Round 1 Bets
More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting Sheet
Outright Bets:
2024 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.
Last week the Outright tag nearly had me kicking myself again, with Cameron Young threatening to win before losing to top 35 play in the model Ryan Fox. I do feel like it is a little thin to ask Tom Kim to win again this week after winning two weeks ago, and Keith Mitchell... Can he win? I struggle with that.
I feel as if we are getting extreme value this week with some of the outright bets that we can get to that we typically just would not get, I don't mind Scottie at +1600-2300 to have the first round lead and win, but I do also like the idea of chasing longer shot bets this week as well. These are all golfer you can use as placement bets or winner without markets.
Bets:
Meissner 60/1
Hideki 30/1
Max Homa 55/1
Doug Ghim 49/1
William Mouw 84/1
Grillo 100/1
Kohles 74/1
AJ Ewart 175/1
Zac Blair 125/1
Troy Merritt 1000/1
Data Tag: Core Plays
Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"
No Core Plays for the 3M Open, which I would agree with from a data standpoint. Scottie doesn't have any course history and is coming in off of a recent missed cut. The rest of the field has just had a little bit too much variance in their results. Now for lineup builds I do like the idea of being overweight on a hand full of golfers that we will touch on throughout this.
Data Tag: High Exposure
Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
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