Scottish Open 2026: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)
- 18 hours ago
- 9 min read
We have two tournaments this week, the main one I will be covering is going to be the Scottish Open, but the Cheat Sheet and and the PGA Lineup Builder does have all the data needed for the ISCO Championship.
*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
We are running into the same problem that we had last week, where there are a lot of similar plays that I really like especially in regards to the pay ups and the 7K range. For GPP's it might be best to go with the golfer that is simply the lowest owned among the golfers that we are going to be on in the player pool that have price tags around each other. For cash we can also do this, basically we shouldn't have extreme chalk due to mostly good pricing. So if a golfer is extreme chalk we can look to not be on that golfer as much and gin some leverage on the field.
KEY STATS:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Bogey Avoidance (BA) Key Stat 1
Total Driving (TD) Key Stat 2
Seaside Style Courses (Strokes Gained Total) (Seaside) Key Stat 3
Strokes Gained Approach (SG AP) Key Stat 4
Par 5 scoring (Par5) Key Stat 5
Due to the weather playing a factor in how this course can play we do not always get a great sample of what stats we can use as key stats for predictability. The one stat that has been the best though each year has been total driving. The rest of the stats are more general stats for the week.
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2025, 2024, 2023, and 2022 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Last 4 years course history.
Weather:
Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather
Assuming the weather does not get any worse the weather should play a big factor this week.
BETTING PICKS:
First Round Leader
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.
Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets
Si Woo Kim
Eric Cole
Wyndham Clark
Matchup Tournament Bets:
Best matchup bet for the week.
More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.
Michael Kim over Brian Campbell
More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting Sheet
Outright Bets:
2024 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.
Bets:
Tommy Fleetwood 20/1
Xander Schauffele 18/1
Matt Fitzpatrick 19/1
Wyndham Clark 28/1
Data Tag: Core Plays
Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"
Both golfers have been safe in regards to making cuts, and both golfers have played extremely well at this track. The issue that I have with both golfers is the lack of consistent upside. I do think it is likely that we get a top 10 finish, but it is also not a lock that they even finish top 20. That is this week though.
Ideally we would just pay up for Scottie and not overthink things but he is way too high priced. This had led to me to get to Matt Fitzpatrick, Xander, Fleetwood, and Clark more.
Data Tag: High Exposure
Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
The only knock on Scottie this week was his missed cut at this event 4 years ago, this was also the cause last year as well and he was able to finish 8th. The question is would that 8th place finish be good enough this week. I do think that at his price he ends up being a bit risky is a cut based event. I would rather try to get to 2 top 10s out of two sub 10K options like Fleetwood or Clark here. They are both safe plays that have the upside to win. I really like both of them, and I like the price tag even more. I believe playing both of them leads to a nice floor.
I do feel like Kitayama is a little bit overpriced this week but then again he has made 9 straight cuts on the PGA Tour ranks out top 5 or better in two of the key stats that we are looking at, and has good course history. He is basically the only player in the 8K range that I like. I also like him as a longshot bet at around 50/1.
Tom Kim looks like a safe play at this price. He is top 20 in course history rank, a top 30 stat fit, and has made 6 straight cuts on the PGA Tour. His weekend last week as the JDC was disappointing but besides that he is looking like a great play at a great price.
Data Tag: Mid Exposure
Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.
There are plenty of golfers that I like here, and plenty of golfers that I actually do not see the point of getting to.
The ones I like: Both Fitzpatrick's, Hatton, MacIntyre, JT, English, Cauley, and Ghim
The ones I don't: Rahm, Reitan, Knapp, and Fox.
Matt Fitzpatrick does have great course history with two top 10s, a top 40, but he also has one missed cut. Fitzpatrick is a top 5 stat fit, and is in great form. The only issue that I have with Matt Fitzpatrick is the price. I would rather go a little cheaper, and get to Xander, Fleetwood, and/or Clark especially in cash. In GPP's we should be on all 4. It would not be shocking to see Fitzpatrick carry his great form into a win. Now the question is, which Fitzpatrick was I referencing their, because Alex has been playing great golf as well, ranking 8th in the field in form. The one concern with Alex is his terrible course history missing two straight cuts here, but that is also why he is priced this low. I lover chasing his form at that priced.
I do feel like MacIntyre is a bit overpriced, and not someone I am actively targeting but for GPP's I will make sure to at least be even weight with the field. Same thing goes for Hatton.
JT does feel like a mostly safe click this week, but the lackluster course history does have me a little worried. He is in good form ranking out 2nd best in the field, mostly due to him rattling off a lot of top 20 finishes and leading to 11 straight made cuts.
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