The first week of the PGA Tour playoffs is here! The FedEx St. Jude Championship will be the "Top" 70 players from this past PGA Tour season. (I say that because Adam Scott didn't make it and that is his fault for not playing more events, but come on the guy only had two missed cuts)
This will be a no-cut event as well which means that the DFS strategy does somewhat change. One of the toughest things about no-cut events is that we know we need to do Studs and Duds based builds. That is because it is typically easier to hit a golfer for a top 1-10 finish thus it results in more points. On the flip side of that the golfers that are below 7K can typically out produce their price enough to give you enough bang for your buck. That has been the most difficult part for me thus far this week, is going with the studs and duds builds. That is partially due to DraftKings price both Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler up enough to the point where it is difficult to fit them into builds.
This Weeks Video:
Key Stats:
- Effective Scoring
- Strokes Gained - Approach
- Good Drive %
- Ball Striking
This is a tournament in which golfers that are strong in Ball Striking tend to be the golfers that do the best. We see that the more curcial part of this stat is looking at golfers that keep the ball in the fairway via good drive %, and golfers that have good strokes gained approach.
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Last 4 years course history. (Different tournament name)
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow
The tough part about this week is having too much money left over with builds. We get so many similar plays to golfers that are priced up, this is what makes the build process difficult this week.
Weather:
Weather looks to be a none factor this week.
Betting Picks
First Round Leader
AM Tee Times
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 7 for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)
Outright Bets:
Tom Kim
Andrew Putnam
Rickie Fowler
3 Ball Bets:
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon.
Core Plays + Outright Bets
Core Plays are the golfers that I am prioritizing the most
Takeaways:
I mentioned that both Scottie and Rahm are priced up a decent amount compared to the norm, which I really enjoy that DK is doing it because things have been cookie cutter in terms of strategy. Like this week we would be doing a studs and duds build, just tossing in Scottie and Rahm, and then the best sub 7K plays. Due to the pricing that is more difficult to do. It would seem that we have to choose one or the other, and like most weeks I would say that there isn't really a big difference between the two especially when you consider price. Given that Scottie is ranking out 1st in 3 of the key metrics I think we need to go with him. But given price, and given that Rahm has better course history I think that he makes for a great starting point.
I like Clark a lot due to his price when you look at Rickie Fowler, and Tyrrell Hatton statically it would appear that Clark should priced the same as them. There is basically no difference yet we are getting a $1,000 price discount, that is something that I like.
Tom Kim is another one of those pricing plays. I like the fact that he played well at this tournament last year finishing top 15. I also like the fact that the last two times we saw him he finished top 10. If we go back further it gets a little ugly which is why overall he doesn't rank out best in recent form. He is however a top 5 stat fit, and this is a price that I love.
Andrew Putnam is a golfer that we have been on a ton, and now we get him at an extreme price discount this week. He has finished 5th, and 24th at this event, which makes sense because this is a course that you would think he would play well at especially given that he is a top 12 specialist. All we need out of him is to have a top 50% finish, and given that he has made 7 straight cuts now that is something that I like.
High Exposure
Takeaways:
Hovland is coming in as the 2nd best play this week in the model, and I think that speaks volumes to the strong safe play that he is. He has had better finishes at this event each year, he is a top 10 stat fit, and basically all of his recent finishes have been top 25ish finishes. He makes some since, the issue is paying up for him at this price we will need more upside.
Same goes for Xander, and Cantlay I love them as plays and I do think we will get good finishes out of them, but at this price it becomes more difficult. Thus I think Hatton, and Rickie are the next best plays.
Both Hatton and Rickie have had some success at this course, and also have left some things to be desired. Both have been playing so well for so long that it is no shock that they are ranking out as a good plays. Both Hatton and Rickie are golfers that make sense in a fair and balanced build.
Mid Exposure
Takeaways:
Tommy Fleetwood is the next best of the golfers that feel like safe plays. If you take out the recent miss cut we would have 3 straight top 10 finishes. He also has ok course history. The worry with Fleetwood is that he is not the best stat fit.
The play that I like I like the most in this rank is Collin Morikawa due to the upside that he holds. He is the 2nd best stat fit in the field, and he recently did have a 2nd place finish, besides that they his form has been spotty. The reason why we would be playing him is for the upside, and not the safety, but given the fact that we do not have to worry about a missed cut that gets me a little bit more excited about him as a play.
Brian Harman has been playing some great golf finishing 1st, 12th, 9th, and 3rd in his last 4 events. He also has finished 3rd, and 36th at this event. He really is looking like a strong play across the board. The worry is really his win at the Open Championship. How prepared will he be this week.
Jaeger has been a super safe play for a long time. I think that is what he is as a play this week as well. He has made 12 straight cuts in a row and ranks out relatively well stat fit wise. He makes for a great pay down play.
Low Exposure
Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays
Takeaways:
Henley is a golfer that you would think would play well at this track, but the price is a bit too high.
Hun An is a golfer that has been playing some solid golf, and he has shown that when he is a golfer that is on he has top 5 upside.
Eric Cole is one of those cheap plays that I like in a studs and duds build, and it makes sense given that he is top 10 in recent form.
Norrman would be a good enough value based play.
Lower Exposure
Players that are lineup fillers, but not players that I want to go out of my way to play.
Conners, and Glover are looking like solid shoulder shrug plays this week. They are golfers whose game should fit well on this course which is why they both rank out as top 20 plays.
Grillo looks like he could be a sneaky good play given that he is strong in Ball Striking, and good enough elsewhere stat wise. Grillo has finished top 15 in 3 out of his past 4 starts.
Todd is another quality value play that I think will finish in the top 50% this week.
Player Pool
Player Pool Breakdown:
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this wee
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Core, High Expsoure, Jaeger
GPP: Morikawa, Cole, Hun An
SAMPLE LINEUP:
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive. (Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup
This should be a safe build. You also could go from Jaeger to Norrman, and then go up from Hovland to Rahm.
Ownership Leverage
Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why. \
*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point. (Comes out Tuesday Evening)
Over Owned / Under Owned:
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