Procore Championship 2025: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)

SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow

Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.

The issue with this week is that we have to again decide whether or not to pay up for Scottie Scheffler, and although we can fit him into our builds I actually do not love the builds I have made with him. So of course if you can fit him into your builds you should but if not I would not stress it as much this week.

The interesting part about this week is the quality of the field. The American Ryder Cup team is using this as an opportunity to tune up before the big event. Most of them have not had much course history as well which could mean for a slight more variance. On top of that a good number of golfers haven't played a competitive round in a while as well.

KEY STATS:

*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.

• Birdie to Better Ratio (B2B) Key Stat 1

• Ball Striking (BS) Key Stat 2

• Strokes Gained off the Tee (SGOT) Key Stat 3

• Strokes Gained Approach (SG AP) Key Stat 4

• Par 4 Scoring (Par 4) Key Stat 5

  
  

Course History:

Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)

Last 4 years course history.

Weather:

Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather

Weather will not be an issue.

BETTING PICKS:

First Round Leader

I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.

• Victor Perez 90/1

• Mark Hubbard 65/1

• Maverick McNealy 35/1

• Russell Henley 30/1

• Patrick Fishburn 75/1

  
  

Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets

Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets

Matchup Tournament Bets:

Best matchup bet for the week.

More will be highlighted in the Showdown/Leaderboard You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.

More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting Sheet 

Outright Bets:

2024 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)

Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.

• Harris English 28/1

• JJ Spaun 24/1

• Patrick Fishburn 95/1

• Akshay Bhatia 31/1

• Rico Hoey 90/1

Data Tag: Core Plays

Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"

Scottie is not a Core Play because he does not have course history but he is still someone that I will be treating that way.

I do like the idea of getting to Sam Burns if you're not playing Scottie. Burns has been playing great golf and checks all the boxes.

Akshay has played well over his past 3 events, and although none of his key stats are all that great he still ranks out as a top 20 stat fit which really tells us the quality of field that we have.

Data Tag: High Exposure

Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)

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