Betting Picks: Process and Plays: Highlighting which golfers I believe are the best bets for that week's tournament.
The last two years at this tournament have been extremely annoying in terms of outright betting. Tony Finau won last year beating out 3 of my golfers that finished T2. The year prior Cameron Davis won due chipped in for eagle on his second to last hole to then eventually beating my outrights Troy Merritt (100/1) and Joaquin Niemann in a playoff.
Maybe this year we can finally get it right. The nice thing about this tournament and the variance it brings is that we are getting a lot of great odds this week. That is why I am opening up my betting card slightly more this week. Basically I view this as a week in which we are getting more bang for our buck.
Which golfers are the most likely to win based on the 2023 PGA Tour Season Winners. (Outright Tag - Golfers meet all the qualifications for an outright winner in 2023, Possible Outright Tag - Golfers meet all but one of the qualifications for an outright winner in 2023, Longshot Only - Golfers meet all but two of the qualifications for an outright winner in 2023. Should only be bet on a golfer that has a long shot bet to win as they are less likely to win)
Above is a list of golfers I will be choosing from to bet. For those that are not familiar with my process each week, I reduce the field to who I believe are the top 5% outright bets.
Over the past two seasons, I have hit 15 outright winners. It has been since may that I have hit a winner though, so one is long overdue!
Below are my favorite outright bets for the week, and a short writeup on a few of them and why I like them.
This week I like the idea of betting them all to top 20.
Rickie Fowler has been playing some of the best golfer in the world for the past 4 months. This all dates back to him getting rid of his swing coach at the start of the season we saw the old Rickie back instantly. Rickie surprisingly has some good course history at this track making 3 out of 4 cuts. Course knowledge could easily be the thing the finally pushes him over the edge and puts him back into the winners circle. If anything he makes for a great top 20 bet.
If I like the idea of betting Rickie because of good course history, and being due for a win then I also have to love Hideki as an outright bet as well. The two golfers are basically the same play on paper this week, the only difference is that Hideki has not shown as much upside as Rickie.
Kevin Yu 110/1:
Kevin Yu I was really struggling with where to roster him this week in dfs, because he is a such a good play, at such a cheap price. He ranks top 3 or better in the key stats that we are looking at including Ball Striking and Birdie or Better %. This really feels a lot like Nate Lashley as a play 4 years ago when he won. I love the price, and with that the only worry with Kevin Yu is fatigue from his surgery this past February. I believe that is why we saw him fall off over the weekend, but because of that we are still getting a great price on him. I see Ludvig Aberg getting a ton of hype this week mostly due to FOMO, but I really do not get why more people aren't on Kevin Yu as and outright bet. Dude is an ELITE stat fit. It's not IF he can make Birdies, it's how long can he sustain making them.
Other Outright Bets I Like
Austin Eckroat, Tom Kim, Hun An
Tom Kim and Collin Morikawa are both solid GPP options in DFS this week, this is because they are good stat fits. Kim is a golfer that given his odds, and being a top 5 stat fit, while also producing a good result last year at this course is a golfer that I think makes a lot of since as an outright bet.
Austin Eckroat is a player that has been coming in with some great form making the cut in his last 7 starts with basically of those starts being ideal finishes given this price. He does have course experience here as well, even though it was a missed cut that could end up helping him have a good week this week. It would not be shocking to see Eckroat find himself in contention to win this week.
Aaron Rai is a GPP only play because he has been way too hit or miss, and you simply cannot trust him in cash, but all in all makes for an interesting GPP play, and outright bet. He is someone that has shown enough upside for us to believe that he can win he just finally needs to do it.
Also have already placed bets on Collin Morikawa to win as shown on the "Members Writeup"
Besides the golfer listed above (they make for great top 10, and 20 bets.
Top 20: All the listed outright bets
Top 40 Jonathan Byrd, Sean O'Hair, Kevin Yu,
First Round Leader + Round 1 Showdown Picks
Golfers listed in the graphic below are the ones that are most likely to have the FRL with the AM-only tee time. (Thus they are also good Showdown Picks)
FRL Winners since RBC Canadian Open:
- RBC Canadian Open - Aaron Rai/Corey Conners
- US Open - Xander Schauffele
*Note for the past 2 in a half month a golfer that was top 7 or better with the EARLY/AM Tee Time has finished with the FRL or T2 for the FRL.
Worth noting my strategy with FRL stays the same bet the top 5% of golfers most likely to have the FRL lead that has the EARLY tee time in RD. (I will then do this again for RD 2 using the NineToFive Showdown sheet, and then for RD3, and 4 I put no tee time filter on the data)
If there was a bet to make with Ludvig Aberg it would be to have the FRL, I am not so sure I am buying the hype on him, but if you are, you can go for it. I do have a little bit of a tough time seeing Collin Morikawa, and Tony Finau figuring out there game enough to have the FRL, it is worth pointing out that PrizePicks does have their BOB number set at 5.5 birdies which would suggest that they think they both have a good shot at the FRL.
From there I think the FRL bets are pretty simple and I am happy to place bets and the last three golfers.
Round 1 Three Ball Bets
Golfers that match up the best for round 1 three-ball bets. (Based on tie or better)
That is all for this week, Good luck!