RSM CLASSIC 2025: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)

SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow

Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.

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KEY STATS:

*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.

• Birdie or Better % (BOB) Key Stat 1

• Ball Striking (BS) Key Stat 2

• SG AP (Strokes Gained Approach) Key Stat 3

• PAR5 (Par 5 Scoring) Key Stat 4

Course History:

Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)

Last 4 years course history.

Weather:

Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather

Weather looks good.

BETTING PICKS:

First Round Leader

I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.

• Michael Thorbjornsen 22/1

• Rico Hoey 25/1

• Thorbjorn Olesen 28/1

• Si Woo Kim 22/1

• Doug Ghim 33/1

Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets

Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets

Matchup Tournament Bets:

Best matchup bet for the week.

More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.

N/A this week.

More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting Sheet 

Outright Bets:

2023 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)

Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.

Bets:

• Rico Hoey 21/1

• Michael Thorbjornsen 26/1

• Vince Whaley 41/1

• Thorbjorn Olesen 31/1

  
  

Data Tag: Core Plays

Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"

I 100% agree with the data tag here. Whaley is coming in checking all the boxes, and is strangely priced below $9,000. He is a starting point this week, and a player we should clearly be going out of our way to target. The flipside is that if Whaley struggles then this week could be bad.

Data Tag: High Exposure

Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)

I get why the data likes McCarthy, and Harman this week both of them are on made cut streaks, and both have great course history, I just worry that they are a bit too high priced.

Bud Cauley is basically the same play as both of them yet we can get him at $8,000. I like him much more at that priced.

Data Tag: Mid Exposure

Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.

I am treating Michael Thorbjonsen as more of a Core Play this week, I am shocked at the Mid Exposure tag.

Rico Hoey, and Thorbjorn Olesen I really like paying up for as well. The issue with both golfers is the lack of course history, but they make up for that with being great stat fits and being in great form.

From there I think every play listed here and in the Low Exposure tour are basically shoulder shrug plays. I will callout a few Low Exposure plays that I like though below.

Data Tag: Low Exposure

Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays

I will not be covering every golfer in this section but highlighting some.

The two that I will be going out of my way to target are Doug Ghim, and Max McGreavy. Both has a made cut streak of at least 4 straight made cuts. Both have course history although it is not great for either of them it is still nice to see that they have had some success.

Player Pool

Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week. (This is based off of 20 entry max lineups. For 150 entry lineups I will open up the player pool slightly more but this will be determined by the lineup optimizer)

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