The 2026 API: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)
- 4 days ago
- 9 min read
I will be covering the 2026 API in this write-up, and hopefully getting into the Puerto Rico Open, after the API write-up has been posted. It would be posted after the API write-up has already been produced. The Cheat Sheet is updated with the Puerto Rico Open data though.
Lastly I do want to call out that I have made a more straightforward and simple PGA DFS Lineup Builder on the website. It works more like the NFL and NBA lineup optimizers. This can be found using here: https://www.ninetofivesports.com/pgadfslineupbuilder
Below is my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for this weeks tournament.
*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
This week the API will be the top 50 and ties, I will mostly be treating it as more of a no-cut event, and mostly trying to get to Scottie, that being said, Rory lineups are very appealing, and I really like getting to MacIntyre, Fitzpatrick and one other stud in fair and balanced builds, so lineup path wise I do not think this is as straightforward as other events we have had recently or for these types of events.
KEY STATS:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Total Driving (TD) Key Stat 1
Effective Birdie to Bogey Ratio (EB2B) Key Stat 2
Ball Striking (BS) Key Stat 3
200+ Scoring (200+) Key Stat 4
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Last 4 years course history.
Weather:
Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather
Weather should not play a factor this week.
BETTING PICKS:
First Round Leader
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.
Viktor Hovland 45/1
Jacob Bridgeman 56/1
Ludvig Aberg 39/1
Ryan Fox 64/1
Matt Fitzpatrick 31/1
Scottie 10.5/1
Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets
TBD
Matchup Tournament Bets:
Best matchup bet for the week.
More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.
TBD
More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting Sheet
Outright Bets:
2023 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.
Bets: (mostly DraftKings)
Matt Fitzpatrick 22/1
Scottie 3/1
Robert MacIntyre 42/1
Shane Lowry 40/1
Top 20 Bets: (mostly FanDuel
Pierceson Coody 2/1
Ryan Fox 3.25/1
Data Tag: Core Plays
Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"
Yea this is basically the decision this week in DFS to go with Rory, and have a lot of salary saving to be able to pay up for another stud, or do we simply not overthink it and give with Scottie and lock in that top 10 finish while targeting a lot of softer plays that should be able to make the cut with him.
Hopefully this isn't a decision that ends up being too right or wrong, but these two plays are clearly the best.
Data Tag: High Exposure
Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
Shane Lowry is clearly underpriced this week, he has two top 10 finishes over his past 3 starts, and he has dominated this course. He is a top 10 stat fit as well. The only concern with him is how will he bounce back after choking away another victory. It wouldn't be the first time a player has choked a win away and then came back the next event and won, that could easily happen. The concern is that he completely falls off this week. But this is still a great price, I will just trust him to be a professional and be good to game.
After that I am fine with Hideki I think he will be very safe, but I do worry about his upside, in a normal week I would love Hideki, this week I see him more as a shoulder shrug play.
Henley is the exact player you would expect to play well at this event, and that is why he did last year, the issue is that he has not been great thus fart this year, thus he isn't going to be a great stat fit, still the course history is tough to completely ignore. I see him more as a low exposure play.
I really like Tommy Fleetwood, the issue with him is that I think both Rory, and Scottie are safter and have more upside. That being said, getting to Tommy can allow you to fit 3 studs into a build and then playing 3 values. Basically increasing your chances of getting multiple top 10 finishers.
Data Tag: Mid Exposure
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