The 2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AM: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)

Scottie or the field, that is the question this week not only for PGA DFS purposes but tor outright bets as well. Yes I kept this the same as last week as I view it to be more true this week. What I find interesting is that Draftkings for DFS made a specific without Scottie group, now I don't think that is very needed but it is interesting decision by them. This just goes to show how dominant Scottie has been and projects to be this week. I do expect him to win.

Lastly I do want to call out that I have made a more straightforward and simple PGA DFS Lineup Builder on the website. It works more like the NFL and NBA lineup optimizers. This can be found using here: https://www.ninetofivesports.com/pgadfslineupbuilder

Below is my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for this weeks tournament.

*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.

SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow

Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.

The issue with this week is that it truly does feel like it is Scottie or the field, and we can easily play in DFS with a lot of decent value plays. This will be the route I most likely go, although going Si Woo Kim, Viktor Hovland and some other cheap plays also does make sense.

We know that for the most part people have a tough time committing to the studs and duds lineup approach for no-cut events which typically leads to a very solid edge, that is what I am baking on this week.

KEY STATS:

*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.

• Ball Striking (BS) Key Stat 1

• Effective Birdie To Bogey Ratio (Bogey Avoidance and Birdie to Bogey Ratio (EB2B) Key Stat 2

• Total Driving (TD) Key Stat 3

• Par 5 Scoring (Par 5) Key Stat 4

• Greens Gained (GG) Key Stat 5

Course History:

Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)

Last 4 years course history.

Weather:

Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather

We are getting potentially some bad weather on Saturday and Sunday. This could end up changing the tournament completely. It goes from an easy scoring event to one that will be much more difficult. What sucks is that it is tougher to plan for this in DFS.

BETTING PICKS:

First Round Leader

I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.

• Si Woo Kim 41/1

• Cameron Young 35/1

• Ben Griffin 42/1

• Sam Burns 42/1

• Maverick McNealy 43/1

• Chris Gotterup 44/1

• Harry Hall 60/1

Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets

Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets

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Matchup Tournament Bets:

Best matchup bet for the week.

More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.

• NA this week

  
  

More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting Sheet 

Outright Bets:

2023 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)

Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.

*Note only golfers that have made a start in 2026 will show up as a good outright bet.

Bets:

• Scottie Scheffler 3/1

• Si Woo Kim 25/1

• Jason Day 25/1

• Viktor Hovland 25/1

• Matt Fitzpatrick 490/1

Longshot Bet;

• Ryo Hisatune 150/1

Top 20 Bets:

• Jake Knapp 1.4/1

• Pierceson Coody 2/1

• Ryan Gerard 1.9/1

• Ryo Hisatsune 4/1

Data Tag: Core Plays

Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"

I see Scottie, Hovland, and Si Woo Kim as 3 players we should be going out of our way to target. Ideally I will get at least 2 of them in all of my builds.

I do worry a little bit about Hideki this week coming in off of a tough loss, one that mentality would be tough to get over. On top of that he has not played this course well in his past two tries finishing 48th, and 71st. I still think he is a good play but for the type of week we have I feel like he is too risky.

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