Valero Texas Open 2026: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)
- 2 hours ago
- 8 min read
I really like this week on paper as we are getting a lot of quality plays at each price tag, this will make the lineup process a bit easier. We have enough golfers that are in good form, good stat fits, and that have played this course well. The toughest part for me is not getting to too many outright bets this week as we are getting a lot of appealing options.,
Lastly I do want to call out that I have made a more straightforward and simple PGA DFS Lineup Builder on the website. It works more like the NFL and NBA lineup optimizers. This can be found using here: https://www.ninetofivesports.com/pgadfslineupbuilder
Below is my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for this weeks tournament.
*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow/Green
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
Again I really like the lineup process for this week. On paper it is a week that we should be targeting heavily especially compared to last week.
KEY STATS:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Strokes Gained Approach (SGAP) Key Stat 1
Effective Birdie to Bogey Ratio (EB2B) Key Stat 2
Par 4 Scoring (Par 4) Key Stat 3
Strokes Gained Tee to Green (SGTG) Key Stat 4
Driving Distance (DD) Key Stat 5
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Last 4 years course history.
Weather:
Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather
Looks like we are going to get that Texas wind this week, with a good chance of storms on Saturday. Overall this is not going to change the approach that I get to this week.
BETTING PICKS:
First Round Leader
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.
Johnny Keefer 40/1
Tommy Fleetwood 28/1
Maverick McNealy 40/1
Sepp Striak 35/1
Keith Mitchell 40/1
Ludvig Aberg 28/1
Sudarsha Yellamaraju 40/1
Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets
Matchup Tournament Bets:
Best matchup bet for the week.
More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.
Dough Ghim over Peter Malnati
Kevin Roy of Mark Hubbard
JT Poston Over Lucas Glover
More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting Sheet
Outright Bets:
2023 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.
Like I said this is a very appealing week in general we are getting 5 "Good" Outright bets this week, and I view them as all viable options. (Collin Morikawa WD)
Ryo Hisatsune 39/1
Jordan Spieth 20/1
Russell Henley 20/1
Sudarshan Yellamaraju 66/1 (Draftkings)
Tommy Fleetwood 15/1
Sepp Straka 25/1
Data Tag: Core Plays
Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"
Having Jordan Spieth graded out as a Core Play is a little bit scary as Jordan has been known to have some very random results. But with local ties, that has led to extremely good course history finishing 12th, and 10th the last two years, and with him making 5 straight cuts in a row include 3 top 12 finishes in his last 4 starts, and surprisingly being a top 15 stat fit, Jordan is coming in checking all the boxes and he is an extremely appealing click this week.
I like the idea of starting out my lineups with Russell Henley, and Jordan Spieth but there is no doubt that Tommy Fleetwood is the safest play this week. Fleetwood is getting knocked by the data due to his 62nd place finish here last year, besides that he is elite. Henley is coming in checking all the boxes and should in for a great week this week.
Data Tag: High Exposure
Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
There is really no denying the appeal of all three golfers this week. Robert MacIntyre is in the best form in the field make the cut in 21 straight events. If he ends up having a spike week with his approach game he could easily see himself in contention on Sunday.
Sepp Straka has been playing pretty well recently finishing 8th, 13th, 50th, and 2nd in his last 4 starts. He ranks top 16 or better in all the key metrics that we look at. If you are not getting to Jordan or Henley Straka is the next best click.
I do worry a little bit about Hideki, if he gets off to a slow start there is a decent chance he will start looking ahead to next week.
Data Tag: Mid Exposure
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