The 2026 Cognizant Classic: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)
- 60 minutes ago
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With a lot of the top plays withdrawing from this event it becomes a little too straightforward of a week in regards to who we should be targeting. It basically becomes Shane Lowry, and Ryan Gerard vs the field. They are the top 2 plays in the field by a good margin.
The issue is that from there it is pretty open in regards to who we should be getting to, this could make this week end up being a higher variance week. This is interesting weeks for DFS, and betting. Where due to the uncertainty having 6/6 across the cut line could be even more impactful, and for betting we are getting surprising longer odds.
Lastly I do want to call out that I have made a more straightforward and simple PGA DFS Lineup Builder on the website. It works more like the NFL and NBA lineup optimizers. This can be found using here: https://www.ninetofivesports.com/pgadfslineupbuilder
Below is my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for this weeks tournament.
*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow/Red
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
Again these week with weaker fields are strange, it is much more difficult to make good builds, but that typically leads to some of the better weeks each year, as it typically leads to some good edges. That is if the top two plays actually play well.
KEY STATS:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Total Driving (TD) Key Stat 1
Effective Birdie to Bogey Ratio (EB2B) Key Stat 2
Ball Striking (BS) Key Stat 3
Wedge Scoring 100 and in, including SG ARG (Wedge) Key Stat 4
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Last 4 years course history.
Weather:
Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather
The weather could be a problem on Friday, there is nothing worse than having golfers rolling during a round, and having their round get paused in the middle of it. In regards to the weather creating a specific advantage it does not seem so.
BETTING PICKS:
First Round Leader
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.
Shane Lowry 37/1
Ryan Gerard 37/1
Nicolai Hojgaard 37/1
Mac Meissner 62/1
Keith Mitchell 41/1
Max McGreevy 54/1
Beau Hossler 84/1
Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets
TBD
Matchup Tournament Bets:
Best matchup bet for the week.
More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.
TBD
More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting Sheet
Outright Bets:
2023 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.
Bets: (mostly DraftKings)
Ryan Gerard 18.5/1
Shane Lowry 19/1
Nicolai Hojgaard 27/1
Mac Meissner 50/1
Seamus Power 85/1
David Lipsky 155/1
Top 20 Bets: (mostly FanDuel
David Lipsky 6/1
Seamus Power 2.9/1
Ryan Gerard 1.04/1
Shane Lowry 1.06/1
Data Tag: Core Plays
Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"
Tough not to love Shane Lowry this week, 7 straight made cuts on the PGA Tour , 2nd best stat fit, overall top 3 or better in all the key metrics, and also has elite course history. The biggest question with him is mostly if he finds himself in contention can he actually close out a win. He has had some pretty brutal choke jobs over the past several years.
Again I will be treating Ryan Gerard as a Core Play as well.
Data Tag: High Exposure
Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
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