The 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)

The Texas Children's Houston Open, got a little bit easier with Scottie Scheffler withdrawing, but that also does set the week to be much more of a hit or miss week. We have a few golfers that end up being clear options, but for a tournament that can have a little bit more variance we could see a golfer or two not show up thus making it a rough week. Overall this week is pretty wide open which means it will be a difficult week for most to predict. That typically means that we are gaining an edge.

Lastly I do want to call out that I have made a more straightforward and simple PGA DFS Lineup Builder on the website. It works more like the NFL and NBA lineup optimizers. This can be found using here: https://www.ninetofivesports.com/pgadfslineupbuilder

Below is my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for this weeks tournament.

*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.

SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Red

Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.

This is looking like a more difficult week to predict, with a lack of clear value, and easy pay up plays this week becomes very risk/reward.

KEY STATS:

*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.

• Strokes Gained Putting (SGP) Key Stat 1

• Effective Birdie to Bogey Ratio (EB2B) Key Stat 2

• Total Driving (TD) Key Stat 3

• Strokes Gained Around the Green (SGARG) Key Stat 4

• Driving Distance (DD) Key Stat 5

Course History:

Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)

Last 4 years course history.

Weather:

Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather

BETTING PICKS:

First Round Leader

I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.

• Sam Burns 35/1

• Rickie Fowler 40/1

• Michael Thorbjornson 40/1

• Min Woo Lee 27/1

• Marco Penge 40/1

• Harris English 50/1

  
  

Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets

Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets

Matchup Tournament Bets:

Best matchup bet for the week.

More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.

• Sam Burns over Jason Day

  
  

More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting Sheet 

Outright Bets:

2023 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)

Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.

Last week Matt Fitzpatrick won as a Good Outright bet, this week we only have two. I could see either of these golfers winning, but they are not the ones I am actively targeting.

*Pre Scottie WD Odds

• Ryan Fox 84/1

• Ryan Gerard 50/1

• Michael Thorbjonsen 39/1

• Brooks Koepka 29/1

• Sam Burns 28/1

• Sudarshan Yellamaraju 94/1 (Draftkings)

Data Tag: Core Plays

Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"

With Scottie's WD we have no golfers that the data considers a Core Play, I would agree with that.

Data Tag: High Exposure

Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)

I see Sam Burns as a player that I want to be going out of my way to target this, he is the best stat fit in the field, 4th best form in the field 7th best specialist, and only gets a knock on his course history due to one terrible start. His other start here was a top 10 finish. I se him as having a great chance to win this week.

Marco Penge is an interesting one this week, and certainly fits the bill of a hit or miss option. He is a golfer that can drive the ball extremely long, ranking top 10 on the tour in driving distance. He is also top 10 in recent form. I see him more as a low exposure play that I use to target upside.

Adam Scott I view as more of a shoulder shrug play, he is at a fair price tag, has course experience, and has made 9 straight cuts in a row include two recent top 12 finishes.

Data Tag: Mid Exposure

Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.

If you wanted to chase some longer odds this week that might not be a bad idea, if you were doing that both Gary Woodland, and Max Greyserman look very appealing for their odds. You can get them around 65-70 to 1 odds. Both golfers have at least a top 10 finish here over the last 3 years. Both are good off the tee, and both have a relatively good finish recently on the PGA Tour. If I had to choose I would go with Greyserman who ranks top 10 in Strokes Gained Putting, and Total Driving. If those two key parts of his game are clicking this week he could easily see himself in contention on Sunday.

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