The 2026 Genesis Invitational: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)

The Genesis Invitational will be back at Riviera Country Club this year after it was unable to be played here last year due to the California wildfires. They actually becomes the toughest part about this week, as course history is typically gives golfers an edge over golfers that have not played this course before. This could either end up emphasis the need for course history or neutralizing it.

For DFS purposes I do like the idea of getting to Scottie Scheffler and then playing some of the very good values that we have. Now with it being a cut event (top 50 at ties or golfers within 10 strokes of the winning score) it will not be foolproof to just go studs and duds, we do need to be on golfers that will make the cut.

Lastly I do want to call out that I have made a more straightforward and simple PGA DFS Lineup Builder on the website. It works more like the NFL and NBA lineup optimizers. This can be found using here: https://www.ninetofivesports.com/pgadfslineupbuilder

Below is my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for this weeks tournament.

*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.

SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow

Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.

I think the lineup process is pretty simple, go studs and duds still with Scottie the issue is that the fair and balanced approach should lead to an easier chance of getting 6/6, but I just really like some of the values that we are getting.

For betting I really liked some of the value that we were getting early on in the week for outright bets, but a lot of those numbers have been corrected. I think this makes for a solid chance to chase some top 20 bets.

KEY STATS:

*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.

• Strokes Gained Approach (SG AP) Key Stat 1

• Effective Birdie To Bogey Ratio (Bogey Avoidance and Birdie to Bogey Ratio (EB2B) Key Stat 2

• 200+ Scoring (200+) Key Stat 3

• Par 4 Scoring (Par 4) Key Stat 4

Course History:

Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)

2024, 2023, 2022, and 2021 Course History (Genesis Invitational not played at Riviera last year)

Weather:

Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather

Weather does not appear to be an issue this week.

BETTING PICKS:

First Round Leader

I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.

• Chis Gotterup 35/1

• Ben Griffin 50/1

• Xander Schauffele 25/1

• Collin Morikawa 33/1

• Ryo Hisatsune 61/1

Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets

Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets

• TBD

  
  

Matchup Tournament Bets:

Best matchup bet for the week.

More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.

• JT Poston O Rico Hoey 2.46/1

• Jake Knapp O Kitayama 2.3/1

• Maverick McNealy O Bhatia 2.52/1

  
  

More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting Sheet 

Outright Bets:

2023 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)

Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.

Bets:

• Scottie Scheffler 3/1

• Tommy Fleetwood 19/1

• Patrick Cantlay 25/1

• Rickie Fowler 46/1

Top 20 Bets:

• Tony Finau 4.5/1 (PointsBet)

• Ryo Hisatsune 3/1

• Tom Hoge 4/1

Data Tag: Core Plays

Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"

No need to dive into why Scottie is a Core Play, he is an easy click still this week even at a higher price tag.

Data Tag: High Exposure

Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)

I personally like going with Patrick Cantlay over Rory due to Cantlay's local ties, and golfers with local ties tend to place this course well, but if you're fading Scottie and going with more of a balanced build getting to these 3 golfers makes a ton of sense.

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