The 2026 Players Championship: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)

The Players Championship is a tricky one this year, as we are getting plenty of great values due to soft pricing, but the studs this week all of their flaws, and are all a little bit more risky than they should be. Scottie still is the safest bet, but if he is not really seen as a lock to finish top 10 as he has been in basically every event over the past 2 years. We also have to deal with Rory being injured, Tommy Fleetwood not having a strong week last week, and virtually every other pay up has a flaw. This feels like one of the more wide-open weeks we have had in a long time. To me that is what makes this one fun to breakdown.

Lastly I do want to call out that I have made a more straightforward and simple PGA DFS Lineup Builder on the website. It works more like the NFL and NBA lineup optimizers. This can be found using here: https://www.ninetofivesports.com/pgadfslineupbuilder

Below is my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for this weeks tournament.

*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.

SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow

Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.

The values this week make it a fun week to attack, the issue is that there are too many good values to choose from making it hard to dial in which ones we should exactly be on at which ownerships. This also makes the lineup process strange where I have had a lot of situations where I had too much salary left over. For example the lineup below is a lineup path that I love, but do not like having to settle for a 9K play that is only a decent option. That is the week that we have though. That is why for outright bets I have chased some longer odd bets.

KEY STATS:

*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.

• Good Drive % (GD%) Key Stat 1

• Effective Birdie to Bogey Ratio (EB2B) Key Stat 2

• Strokes Gained Off the Tee (SGOT) Key Stat 3

• Par5 Scoring (Par5) Key Stat 4

• Strokes Gained Approach (SGAP) Key Stat 5

Course History:

Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)

Last 4 years course history.

Weather:

Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather

BETTING PICKS:

First Round Leader

I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.

• Scottie 16/1

• Ludvig 35/1

• Hideki 40/1

• Cameron Young 40/1

• Jacob Bridgeman 50/1

• Xander 40/1

  
  

Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets

Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets

• Matt Fitzpatrick +217

• Aaron Rai +195

• Jake Knapp +233

  
  

Matchup Tournament Bets:

Best matchup bet for the week.

More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.

• TBD

  
  

More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting Sheet 

Outright Bets:

2023 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)

Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.

I could see all of these golfers winning, I just don't know if I want to bet on them to win. I like chasing longer odds, and those golfers I could also see being top 20 bets.

Bets: (mostly DraftKings)

• Jake Knapp 50/1

• Sepp Straka 55/1

• Ryan Fox 195/1

• Rickie Fowler 55/1

• Si Woo Kim 26/1

• Collin Morikawa 22/1

• Min Woo Lee 40/1

• Joel Dahmen 250/1 (half unit)

  
  

Top 20 Bets: (mostly FanDuel

• Ricky Castillo +410

• Joel Dahmen +550

  
  

Data Tag: Core Plays

Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"

I would agree that Tommy and Scottie are both the two safest plays that also hold the most upside. The concern would be them not paying off their price tag, but this is a week where we do need to spend some money, and I do feel the most comfortable getting to these two. If I am not getting to them I am going to start lineups out with Collin Morikawa who I will say is more risky, but I feel hold just as much upside. That is why I am ok with the Core Play tag for Tommy and Scottie.

Data Tag: High Exposure

Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)

This group has a wide range of outcomes. Xander, Henley, and Lowry could easily find themselves in contention to win on Sunday, but if their Total Driving is off, they could all miss the cut as well. I see Henley and Xander as more of Low Exposure plays.

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