The 2026 Valspar Championship: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)

The Valspar Championship is a unique event this week where we are getting a few standout plays at their prices, and a few really good pay up options, the issue is that we have a lot of alike plays at a lot of similar prices, this will make this week a little bit more difficult to dial in a betting card, or a "top" build. There are enough plays that I considered good hit or miss options, and as a result I think it could be worth taking on the potential upside. Heck last week we saw two risk / reward plays finish 1st and 2nd.

Lastly I do want to call out that I have made a more straightforward and simple PGA DFS Lineup Builder on the website. It works more like the NFL and NBA lineup optimizers. This can be found using here: https://www.ninetofivesports.com/pgadfslineupbuilder

Below is my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for this weeks tournament.

*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.

SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow

Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.

I do favor the fair and balanced build approach this week, I think this will present the best chance to get 6/6 across the cut line. That being said for GPPs I think there are a few risky values that could pop which if the studs like Xander, and Hovland go off this could mean the studs and duds approach is more favorable for GPPs. This is the first week this season where depending on the contest one could be making two completely different lineups.

KEY STATS:

*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.

• Ball Striking (BS) Key Stat 1

• Effective Birdie to Bogey Ratio (EB2B) Key Stat 2

• Total Driving (TD) Key Stat 3

• Par5 Scoring (Par5) Key Stat 4

• Strokes Gained Approach (SGAP) Key Stat 5

Course History:

Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)

Last 4 years course history.

Weather:

Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather

BETTING PICKS:

First Round Leader

I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.

• Austin Smotherman 50/1

• Nick Taylor 50/1

• Viktor Hovland 33/1

• Xander 25/1

• Brooks 33/1

• Ricky Castillo 60/1

  
  

Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets

Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets

• John Parry

  
  

Matchup Tournament Bets:

Best matchup bet for the week.

More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.

• Denny McCarthy WINNER Mackenzie Hughes

  
  

More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting Sheet 

Outright Bets:

2023 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)

Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.

I can certainly see anyone one of these golfers winning, but I think I will just target Xander then chase longer odds.

Bets: (mostly DraftKings)

- Xander Schauffele 11/1

- Jacob Bridgeman 22/1

- Ryo Hisatsune 42/1

- Sahith Theegala 40/1

- Brooks Koepka 25/1

- Zac Blair 220/1

Data Tag: Core Plays

Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"

I do view Xander as the top play this week, and I am happy to see that the data agrees. His form as been a little spotty on some rounds but for the most part he is playing great golf. He ranks top 5 or better in all the key metrics that we look at. He is checking all the boxes, and isn't over priced, on top of that he has pretty solid outright odds at 11 to 1.

Data Tag: High Exposure

Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)

I still view these two as more risk/reward type plays, but clearly when they are on their game they have the upside to go out and win. Theegala found himself in contention for a little bit of the tournament last week, and I could see that upside their for him again this week. I really like getting to him in most of my single entry builds this week, especially ones that are fair and balanced.

Fitzpatrick is more difficult to get to simply because of his price, I would rather get to Hovland or Xander and a little higher of a price. Also we have to deal with how he will mentality be able to handle losing the players championship. Overall I think he can bounce back fine, but still a slight knock on him.

Data Tag: Mid Exposure

Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.

I prefer to get to Bridgeman, Hisatsune, and Hovland as more high exposure plays, but that is more due to the field that we have. I could see all three of those golfers being in contention to win this week. All three have great course history (in terms of upside), and are in great form. They all have at least one flaw though.

For Hovland is that he is a terrible stat fit Bridgeman it is that he is a bad Specialist, and missed the cut at this event two years ago. I do not really care about that missed cut for him as he finished 3rd last year, and is in the best form in the field, and is the 2nd best stat fit. The only knock on Hisatsune is that he is a poor specialist, so I like that he is a great stat fit.

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