Wyndham Championship 2026: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)
- 19 hours ago
- 9 min read
This is a week where it is a little bit easier to dwindle down the player pool, which should make this week a bit easier for roster construction. For golf bets I think this is a week for a lot of Top 20 or so bets outright wise there are only 3 golfers that I am currently getting to, and one fomo bet in Blades Brown that I will end up getting to.
*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
I like the lineup process for this week, and I think it is easy to make a good build, but overall I think that field that we are getting is less predictable compared to some of the previous ones that we have gotten to, so I am dialing things back slightly compared to the last few weeks. Just ends up being a normal week.
KEY STATS:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Birdie or Better % (BoB) Key Stat 1
Total Driving (TD) Key Stat 2
Ball Striking (BS) Key Stat 3
Strokes Gained Approach (SG AP) Key Stat 4
Par 5 Scoring (Par 5) Key Stat 5
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2025, 2024, 2023, and 2022 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Last 4 Years Course History
Weather:
Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather
Weather is not an issue this week.
BETTING PICKS:
First Round Leader
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.
I like the top 7 more specifically the top 5 to be good first round leader bets.
Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets
Matchup Tournament Bets:
Best matchup bet for the week.
More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.
Ben Kohles beating Hideki +240
Spaun +124 over Jordan
More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting Sheet
Outright Bets:
2024 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.
The three outright bets that I like the most are Cameron Young, Davis Thompson, and Ryan Gerard, but given that Tom Kim is ranking out as a good outright bet I will get to him as well. Two former winners, what can go wrong...
Data Tag: Core Plays
Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"
Cameron Young is a clicking I have been making a lot this week, that is because he is the only player I believe has both safety and updates. The data tag backs that up, and he ranks out top 6 or better in all the key metrics. After him though the week becomes a little less appealing.
Data Tag: High Exposure
Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
I don't hate Koivun as a play this week, but I do hate the price. I would rather get to Hideki at 9,500 who I view as a mostly safe play that has had great upside lately.
Hideki has made 30 straight cuts in a row, include two straight weeks of top 5 finishes. He is a top 15 stat fit. Course History he has a top 15 finish and a missed cut. Overall I like chasing his recent finishes.
JT Can have a random good week this week, I just don't really want to chase that. I might have around 5% of him.
Bezuidenhout, and Grillo are two of my favorite simple click, and two players I would be fine betting on to top 20. For DFS they are at a price that allows you to get to Cameron Young. They both have 0 missed cuts at this event over the last 4 years, and both have made 7 straight cuts on tour. Stat fit wise they both rank out top 30 in the field. Overall these should be safer clicks that can hold upside.
Data Tag: Mid Exposure
Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.
Patrick Cantlay WD*
One interesting thing I saw doing Underdog PGA best ball drafts is that Blades Brown is going top 10, I think that is a little two high, but at the same time he is in the second best form in the field, and I will say his odds at around 65/1 does interest me. That is my fomo outright bet this week, I am fine chasing that. Given his ADP I would've thought that he would have a higher projected ownership, and maybe he ends up being someone that climbs ownership wise, but if it stays around 15% I think we could actually end up being overweight on him.
Ryan Gerard I like for chasing upside, I almost think he is a better outright bet than he is DFS play. He has finished 117th, and 74th at this event, but he is in the 3rd best form in the field finishing top 10 in his last two starts on tour. He is also the 2nd best stat fit in the field with nothing really wrong with his game for this track. The course history has me worried but he makes for a great GPP play.
Davis Thompson I LOVE at this price. $8,400 and 40+ to 1 odds. He ranks top 20 or better in 3 out of the key stats, overall ranking out as a top 10 stat fit. His form overall could be better but he has finished 8th, and 7th in his last two events.
Meissner is more of a shoulder shrug play as I feel like he is correectly priced but I don't hate the idea of chasing his course history (2nd, and 11th).
Kevin Yu I see as more of a lower exposure play.
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