The 3M Open 2025: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)

Gear up for the 2025 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities, a thrilling PGA TOUR event packed with betting and DFS opportunities! Our preview highlights top outright picks, featuring favorites and under-the-radar value plays with strong course fit. We’ll share core players for DFS lineups, focusing on key stats like strokes gained and recent form. Learn our strategic betting approach, lineup-building process, and sleeper picks to uncover hidden gems. With a curated player pool, this guide equips you to tackle the tournament and maximize your success in this exciting, birdie-filled showdown!

SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow / Green

Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.

The only concern that I have this week is that it is a little straightforward for DFS purposes, meaning if one of those straightforward plays has an off week it could end up being a bad week. For betting purposes I think we clearly should be betting on Sam Burns and Maverick McNealy as they are the top 2 plays in the field that we can get at at least 17/1 odds. The issue this week is that we have 0 "Good" outright bets this week, which does point to it being a potentially more random week.

KEY STATS:

*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.

• Birdie or Better % (BOB) Key Stat 1

• Ball Striking (BS) Key Stat 2

• "Many" Water Hazards in play (Strokes Gained Total) (Seaside) Key Stat 3

• Strokes Gained Approach (SG AP) Key Stat 4

• Par 5 scoring (Par5) Key Stat 5

  
  

This is a unique course, that I love it is both challenge, and extremely easy, and that is due to the amount of water hazards that are in play. 15/18 holes have water meaning golfers can't really get away with miss hits that is why we see Ball Striking tend to pop here. But this is a big week for scoring that is why we have to be looking at Birdie or Better %, and Par 5 Scoring.

Course History:

Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)

Last 4 years course history.

Weather:

Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather

Again potential rain early in the feel could great softer greens and more scoring opportunities.

BETTING PICKS:

First Round Leader

I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.

• Maverick McNealy 35/1

• Taylor Pendrith 50/1

• Kevin Yu 60/1

• Max Greyserman 45/1

• Si Woo Kim 55/1

• Kurt Kitayama 55/1

Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets

Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets

• Matt Wallace

• John Pak

• Austin Eckroat

• Trey Mullinax

• Karl Vilips

Matchup Tournament Bets:

Best matchup bet for the week.

More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.

• Adam Scott +100 over Jake KNapp

• Keith Mitchell beating Andrew Putnam -110

• Taylor Pendrith beating Max Greyserman -115

More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting Sheet 

Outright Bets:

2024 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)

Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.

*Note these are the potential outright bets and not the good outright bets this week.

Bets:

• Maverick McNealy 20/1

• Sam Burns 18/1

• Wyndham Clark 25/1

• Taylor Pendrith 33/1

• Alex Smalley 80/1 (Betonline)

• Andrew Putnam 75/1

• Hayden Springer 125/1 (Half unit)

• Jackson Suber 150/1 (Half unit)

  
  

Data Tag: Core Plays

Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"

I agree fully here, McNealy is arguably too cheap this week for a golfer that is checking all the boxes, for a golfer that ranks to 15 or better in all key metrics that we look at. He doesn't struggle on water aligned course, hasn't missed a cut at this tournament in the last 3 years while having a top 10 finish, and has made 5 straight cuts in a row. The reason the data likes him over Burns is that Burns is coming in off of two made cuts but two disappointing made cuts. But I will also be treating Burns as a Core Play.

Data Tag: High Exposure

Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)

So yes the concerns with Burns would be two "Bad" made cuts he had the last two weeks, but those are two different courses than the one we have this week and he should be good to go. He ranks top 10 or better in all the key metrics that we look at.

I would like Chris Gotterup a little more if he will a little bit cheaper, but due to his price he is more difficult to get to. Still I will be on him in GPPs.

Same goes fro Max Greyserman who is coming in off of two bad starts in a row, and at a high price tag that does make him risky. Still Greyserman is the BEST Specialist in the field, and his still ranks out 9th in the field in form. Still worth a look in GPPs.

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