The Memorial Tournament 2026: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)

Breaking down my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for this weeks tournament.

*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.

SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Red/Yellow

Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.

This week ends up being somewhat of a potential difficult week, and that is due to the pricing that we are getting this week.

KEY STATS:

*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.

Key stats this week are based on the 2018 results for the BMW Championship, typical Donald Ross courses, and the typical PGA Championship key stats.

• Bogey or Better % (BOB) Key Stat 1

• Par 5 Scoring (Par 5) Key Stat 2

• Ball Striking (BS) Key Stat 3

• Greens in Regulation (GIR) Key Stat 4

Course History:

Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)

Last 4 Years Course History

Weather:

Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather

Slight wind in the forecast but not enough to currently be worried about it making a big impact on scoring.

BETTING PICKS:

First Round Leader

I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.

• Jordan Spieth 45/1

• Alex Smalley 40/1

• Nick Taylor 55/1

• Si Woo Kim 28/1

• Cameron Young 25/1

Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets

Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets

• N/A

  
  

Matchup Tournament Bets:

Best matchup bet for the week.

More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.

More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting Sheet 

Outright Bets:

2023 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)

Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.

Although I could see anyone of these golfers winning, I think the best bang for out buck is going with Aberg, Xander, and Fitz. Then chasing a longshot bet or two.

Bets:

• Ludvig Aberg 16/1

• Xander Schauffele 18/1

• Matt Fitzpatrick 22/1

• Nick Taylor 105/1

• Mac Meissner 125/1

Data Tag: Core Plays

Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"

There is really no denying that these three golfers are both the safest plays that also hold the most upside. I do really want to get to at least 1 of these three in all of my builds this week. If I can get Aberg, and Xander in my builds I would like to do that as well. That being said I think that we are also getting a lot of great studs that could end up producing just as good results if not better. Sure some of those golfers I am referring to have a little bit less safety but for GPPs I do think getting to some of those plays will make sense. For cash I thinking going Aberg, and Xander will make a ton of sense.

That being said we are getting enough decent values to be able to fit Scottie into some builds as well.

Data Tag: High Exposure

Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)

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