John Deere Classic 2026: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)
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I typically am a big fan of the Midwest swing, and this week is no different, we are getting a somewhat loaded field for the JDC this year as well. There are almost too many appealing outright bets at good numbers. For DFS we are getting about 30 golfers in play.
*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
0I0 00002020230like basically all of the lineups this week, but there isn. m
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KEY STATS:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Birdie or Better % (BOB) Key Stat 1
Ball Striking (BS) Key Stat 2
Strokes Gained Putting (SG Putt) Key Stat 3
Strokes Gained Approach (SG AP) Key Stat 4
Par 5 scoring (Par5) Key Stat 5
With this being a short track and a course that allows easy scoring we are just looking at scoring stats. This is very much a course where golfers need to be able to convert on their scoring opportunities, they will do that by setting themselves up well with their second shots and then making some putts.
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Last 4 years course history.
Weather:
Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather
Other than pretty extreme heat, nothing too crazy weather wise. I think this could actually be factor to some individual golfers, but that will be tough to know prior. This is actually something where I do think there could be a decent edge for with AM golfers. A little bit of dew on the greens in the morning making them play soft before they dry out throughout the day. Could lead to putts being less true later in the day. That being said one thing I have always found tough playing in these conditions is going from mild temperatures to extreme heat, with softer greens turning in to firm, can mess with the mind a little, so maybe it ends up being nothing.
BETTING PICKS:
First Round Leader
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.
Jacob Bridgeman 45/1
Ben Griffin 30/1
Dough Ghim 50/1
Eric Cole 40/1
Jackson Kouivun 33;/1
JT Poston 40/1
Ryo Hisatsune 50/1
Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets
Marty Dou +205
Blades Brown +237
Kevin Yu +217
Pierceson Coody +200
Matchup Tournament Bets:
Best matchup bet for the week.
More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.
Rickie Fowler beating Zach Johnson +104 Draftkings
Joel Dahmen beating Camilo Villegas +102
Hank Lebioda beating Jonathan Byrd +103
More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting Sheet
Outright Bets:
2024 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.
Bets:
This is my issue this week is that we have a lot of appealing bets, especially at appealing numbers. I would not talk anyone out of any of these bets they are all solid. The only one I have went out of my way to grab thus far is Jacob Bridgeman. He is an elite stat fit, and hopefully that will lead to him bouncing back.
I went with more longer odd bets this week.
- Jacob Bridgeman 30/1
- Jackson Koivun 27/1
- Eric Cole 33/1
- Doug Ghim 44/1
- Denny McCarthy 62/1
- Austin Eckroat 15/0
- AJ Ewart 140/1
Data Tag: Core Plays
Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"
I was shocked to see that we have any core plays this week, I was more shocked to see that the only Core Play was Jackson Koivun. It would not be tough to imagine him having a great wee like he has done his past 5 starts on the PGA Tour. His most recent start on the PGA Tour being a top 25 finish at the US Open. He played this course last year finishing 11th as well. Now I still think he is a bit too risky to be considered a Core Play, but I do think I want plenty of exposure to him. The core plays that I will be on this week are more of safer plays that I also believe have some upside.
Data Tag: High Exposure
Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
Ben Griffin was very disappointing last year at this tournament going bogey, double on his final two holes of round 2 which led to him missing the cut. The year prior to that he finished 5th. He has seemingly found his form again with 5 top 20 finishing over his last 7 starts with 3 of those being top 10 finishes. I would not shock me to see him in contention this week. For DFS I do think it makes sense to chase his upside
Keegan has always reminded me a bit of Zach Johnson, and Steve Stricker 2 absolute legends of this event. He game certainly fits this course. It would not be shocking to see him have a good week this week. I view him more a shoulder shrug play but yea this makes sense.
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