Betting Picks: Process and Plays: Highlighting which golfers I believe are the best bets for that week's tournament.
Last year we were able to hit Xander Schauffele as an outright winner at 20/1 odds in this tournament. Xander was also another FRL leader hit for us last week at 33/1 odds (chopped to 16.5/1) odds.
Last week was the second straight week in which it seemed like we had a great chance at an outright winner with Mark Hubbard and Justin Rose being in contention two weeks ago, and Xander Schauffele, and Rickie Fowler in contention last week.
With hitting the FRL, and 5/8 placement bets it was a good week for you betting. Hoping to deliver on that again.
Which golfers are the most likely to win based on the 2023 PGA Tour Season Winners. (Outright Tag - Golfers meet all the qualifications for an outright winner in 2023, Possible Outright Tag - Golfers meet all but one of the qualifications for an outright winner in 2023, Longshot Only - Golfers meet all but two of the qualifications for an outright winner in 2023. Should only be bet on a golfer that has a long shot bet to win as they are less likely to win)
Above is a list of golfers I will be choosing from to bet. For those that are not familiar with my process each week, I reduce the field to who I believe are the top 5% outright bets.
Over the past two seasons, I have hit 15 outright winners. It has been since may that I have hit a winner though, so one is long overdue!
Cantlay is coming in as the best pick in the NineToFive Model this week, and we can get him at 10/1 odds. The top player in the NineToFive Model has already won 5 times this season, finished runner-up 7 times, top 5 15 times, and has an average finish of 9.8 this season so Cantlay is looking like a great option.
Cantlay has finished top 15 or better 4 straight tries at this track. He continues to play great golf, and it is just a matter of time until he gets another win under his belt. He is the perfect fit this week, and there is no reason not to love him.
Yes, Xander choked away a US Open victory, both on the opening hole on Saturday and with a triple bogey on Sunday, might sound weird to say but with Xander he had two separate swings that cost him the US Open which is not normal for Xander (typically its just one drive that finds the water). Anytime he gets into contention he just has a horrible drive. So why do I like him this week? Well, this is a tournament that he has won before, and if we know anything about Xander it's that he likes what he likes and this course is certainly a course that he likes. I expect him to be in contention again this week. At the very least what this season has taught us is that being in contention matters (Wyndham Clark) eventually a golfer will figure it out. On paper Xander is an ideal play, we just need him to figure it out.
This is the first time that Tommy Fleetwood is popping as a good outright winner this season, and that is coming off of a 5th, and a 2nd place finish over his past two starts. He has been looking like he is on the verge of a victory and I think this will finally be the week he gets it done. He has made the cut in two straight tries at this track, and now has 4 top-10 finishes over his past 9 starts. The biggest worry is that he is only the 20th-best stat fit. He does make up for that a little bit by being a top 10 Specialist in the field. The Outright Tag has him listed as an outright, and I agree.
Viktor Hovland seems to be coming in under the radar for a guy that has been playing some extremely good golfer recently finishing 19th, 1st, 18th, and 2nd over his past 4 starts. In the field, he ranks no worse than 5th in form whether that be Recent Form Rank, Last 5, Last 10, or Last 15 starts. Hovland has been playing some great golf. Hovland ranks top 21 or better in Total Driving, and Ball Striking which we see as two key stats that golfers need to excel at in order to win on this course. He also is a golfer that does not make many mistakes, this is why he is ranking as a top 10 stat fit. Overall he ranks out as the 6th best pick in the NineToFive Model. (Golfers that rank in the 5% in the NineToFive Model have won 40% of the events over the past two seasons on tour)
Hovland as an outright bet is a great way to get a piece of one of the 6 ELITE golfers we have in the field this week while still getting great odds.
You look at some of the winners that we have had this season in Nick Taylor, Mackenzie Hughes, Adam Svensson, Chris Kirk, Taylor Moore, Matt Wallace, and Emiliano Grillo and we see the trend that a lot of less-than-stellar golfers have been winning this season, and winning events in which there were bigger names in the field. That has been the trend this season, and I feel like there is a good chance that that could happen again this week.
Andrew Putnam is probably the best longshot bet we will get this whole year. (Longshot bet to me is anyone over 100/1 odds) its really confusing as to why we are getting the 150/1 that we are on him for Fanduel, as he is ranked as the 21st-best pick in the NineToFive Model. Looking at the data in his player profile there is nothing that really suggests he will struggle this week, he is a strong enough play across the board this week and fits the bill of winners in 2023.
I have seen a lot of chatter about Mark Hubbard as an outright bet at a similar number, and I don't might that, but I find it more strange people aren't on Andrew Putnam.
Other Outright Bets I Like
Joseph Bramlett 250/1 DraftKings
Both Andrew Putnam and Joseph Bramlett fall under the "Longshot Bet Only" tag this week, and lucky for us they are both longshot bets this week. Bramlett is not an elite play by any means, but he has been playing some good golf lately, here are his last 6 results: 18th, MC, 19th 40th. 10th, and 26th. This shows that when he has been n he has been on. I mean 3 top 20s in his last 5 starts is impressive, and this has been a tournament in which we almost have had "random" winners with Sahith Theegala last year, and Kramer Hickok the year before.
Bramlett has made the cut 2/3 times thus far at this event. To be fair I think he makes for a better top 20 bet this week.
Another name I will toss out there that could be worth a look this week is Dylan Wu. You can get extremely good odds on him for whichever bet you want to make. His outright odds are 400/1 on Fanduel. This is a little bit surprising to me given the fact that he is a top-12 stat fit. Now I agree he won't win, and I would rather do a placement bet on him but I did want to call this out.
Besides the golfer listed above (they make for great top 10, and 20 bets.
Top 20: Xander Schauffele (0.73/1 Williamhill), Patrick Cantlay (0.67 Bet365), Austin Eckroat 3.2/1 DraftKings)
Top 40 Dylan Wu, Andrew Putnam, Mark Hubbard
First Round Leader
Golfers listed in the graphic below are the ones that are most likely to have the FRL with the AM-only tee time.
FRL Winners since RBC Canadian Open:
- RBC Canadian Open - Aaron Rai/Corey Conners
- US Open - Xander Schauffele
*Note for the past 2 in a half month a golfer that was top 7 or better with the EARLY/AM Tee Time has finished with the FRL or T2 for the FRL.
Worth noting my strategy with FRL stays the same bet the top 5% of golfers most likely to have the FRL lead that has the EARLY tee time in RD. (I will then do this again for RD 2 using the NineToFive Showdown sheet, and then for RD3, and 4 I put no tee time filter on the data)
Now personally I think that Wyndham Clark will literally have the hungover win going on this week. I don't see the point in targeting him as an FRL bet. So I will be including the 8th most likely to have the FRL in the AM tee times in Sahith Theegala.
Also because I like Andrew Putnam I like him at 90/1 odds on Fanduel or BetMGM.
Round 1 Three Ball Bets
Golfers that match up the best for round 1 three-ball bets. (Based on tie or better)
That is all for this week, Good luck!