World Wide Technology Championship: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)

SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Red

Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.

I do not like this slate, we are only getting a handful of players where we can expect predictable outcomes. On top of that this is typically an easy scoring week with leads to more randomness.

Also please note there is a slight issue with how the made cut projections are being pulled in right now via the betting odds. I am working to resolve this.

KEY STATS:

*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.

• Birdie or Better % (BOB) Key Stat 1

• Ball Striking (BS) Key Stat 2

• TD (Total Driving) Key Stat 3

• PAR5 (Par 5 Scoring) Key Stat 4

In simple this is a golf course that will reward golfers that can hit it long and accurate, this will lead to them being able to score.

Course History:

Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)

Last 4 years course history.

Weather:

Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather

Weather looks good.

BETTING PICKS:

First Round Leader

I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.

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Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets

Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets

Matchup Tournament Bets:

Best matchup bet for the week.

More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.

None that I love this week.

More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting Sheet 

Outright Bets:

2023 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)

Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.

Bets:

• Spaun 15/1

• Griffin 13/1

• Kevin Yu 34/1

• Rico Hoey 23/1

• Vince Whaley 81/1

  
  

Data Tag: Core Plays

Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"

If this were the middle of the season, and these two were priced like this, in this field I would be more than happy to get to them. But with this being their first real event in around 3 months that does worry me, that this is more of a tune up week rather than a week where we can expect them to win. That being said they are the two best golfers in the field, and they are grading out as core plays so I do think we should be getting some exposure to them.

Data Tag: High Exposure

Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)

Nick Taylor has the same problem that Spaun, and Griffin have, we haven't seen him since the tour championship, so we don't really know what to expect out of him. I do like his price, and I do see him making the cut, I would just rather get to golfers who have played multiple events throughout the fall swing.

Data Tag: Mid Exposure

Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.

I do feel like Max Greyserman, and Wyndham Clark are pretty risky/reward this week, but I am fine getting to them as plays, I just won't be going out of my way to play them.

Matt Kuchar is one of my favorite options on this slate given his price tag. He make the lineup process easier.

Doug Ghim is another play I do not mind getting to. He isn't an ideal play, but that is the week that we have, and at his price he looks like a very appealing option.

Data Tag: Low Exposure

Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays

I will not be covering every golfer in this section but highlighting some.

Kevin Yu, and Rico Hoey are two of my favorite options this week. We have seen them play well multiple times this fall swing, and they both have course experience. I wish Kevin Yu would have at least made a cut here but having two starts at this track is not a bad thing.

Keith Mitchell, and Nico Echavarria are fine punt plays at their prices.

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