PGA DFS: Sony Open (Members Writeup)

The season of "Easy" PGA DFS continued last week which either tells me the Model cracked the code or we have the potential to have a little bit of a let down spot sometime soon. I do think the changes that I made to the 925 model this offseason are actually pretty huge, although small differences we can see them adding up both week to week and now season long.

Last week we also got the betting for the 2023 golf year off on the correct foot with Jon Rahm both having the FRL at 12/1 (chopped to 4/1 for most sites), and Rahm winning at 6/1. Which really just made me kick myself because I had the thought that betting him FRL and Outright was dumb and should have done FRL + Win as he ranked out #1 in both. Anyways we basically hit Rahm last week at 10/1 which we will take.

This week we have the Sony Open which I vividly remember as being one of the most tilting weeks of the season last year. This was due to the two "top" plays burning us in Webb and Sungjae and a lot of the next-best options going low. We have also seen a big trend of golfers that played at the STOC the previous week having a big edge. This could be for many reasons, but to summarize not having to travel, thus being more comfortable, and having a competitive 4 rounds in helps.

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StatHero - Set a lineup against there's - If it wins you win - Simple easy and direct.

925 PGA DFS UPDATES:

- 925 Mobile Cheat Sheet: As I am sure many of you are aware of the 925 Data is set up for Desktop use, but I believe I have found a solution that will not cause the price of the membership to need to be raised. I am currently doing a trial run with this so please let me know in the 925 Discord Chat if you see any issues. I will be adding in more features to this through the week.

Key Stats:

- Effective Scoring

- BOB%

- SG AP

- SG TTL

- Greens Gained

The Sony Open is an event that can be won many different ways, the key this week is to target golfer that can score.

Course History:

Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)

SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow

We have a lot of soft pricing this week that should make lineup construction easier. It is a week in which I will feel pretty confident about each build I end up on whether that is a fair and balanced lineup or a studs and dud build.

The only issue with this week would be looking at the variance for golfers that are coming in from time off. We saw last week that this was not a huge concern so I hope that continues this week as well.

Weather:

Like last week the weather is looking pretty ideal so we can expect more birdies like we had last year than we did in years prior to that. This furthers the point that we should be targetting golfers that can score.

First Round Leader

AM Tee Times

I will be targeting AM Tee Times for FRL betting until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)

Jordan 30/1

Harman 40/1

Henley 40/1

Hoge 45/1

Mcnealy 50/1

Spaun 55/1

Outright Bets:

Putnam 45/1

Conners 25/1

C Bez 45/1

Poston 45/1

Longshot 70/1

Round 1 Matchup Bets (3 Balls)

"Core Play" I see 3 Golfers this week as true Core Plays, especially since you can fit them into your builds easily.

Takeaways:

Corey Conners to me is just a standout play, especially at this price point, I also love the fact that he played last week. Conners has finished 11th, 12th, and 3rd at this tournament.. He is coming in checking all the boxes and on paper is an ideal play.

C Bez is looking like someone that is getting lost someone how ownership wise, and because of that he could become an even better play. C Bez finished 17th at this event last year. His Recent Form extremely good having 3 top 5 finishes in his last 4 starts. Overall he is a very strong play, especially considering price point.

Andrew Putnam is also an elite play at this price point, he like C Bez has pretty elite recent form, just the only worry with Putnam would be the lack of extremely recent upside, still good as a whole. Putnam at this tournament has made 3 out of 4 cuts including a 4th place finish here 4 years ago. He is someone that we have trusted a lot this season and I will continue to role with him this week.

The slight issues with C Bez and Putnam is time off, and not playing last week, this could lead to variance.

Takeaways:

Tom Kim and Sungjae Im are cleary the class of the field, the reason I did not make them core plays is because the fair and balanced lineup approach is so appealing to me this week.

At the same time they are extremely cheap for how good of plays that they are. We could find easy ways to fit them into our builds as a result. The beauty of how this week looks on paper is that it should come down to most correct decision rather than making a mistake.

Maverick McNealy was someone that ranked out as a Core Play on the "Data Tag", and I feel like we can't ignore that. Finished 27th at this event last year. Has made 5 straight cuts on tour. Overall he is just a very solid play.

Is simply the next best of the strong options that we have this week.

Takeaways:

These golfers are all extremely strong, and should be safe plays because of their price point.

Harman is somewhat of a worry considering his price point given his bad course history. But also Harman is a good stat fit, and has been in extremely good recent form. I almost think his one of the best GPP / Outright bets but also not someone I would consider in cash.

Taylor Montgomery is a play that you have to like if you like Tom Kim. Both have been really solid thus far this season, and well we get him at a cheap price tag as well. Grillo, Poston, Knox, and Baddeley are all plays I would consider for a potential cheaper made cut.

Ben Griffin I think is a sneaky gpp play.

Takeaways:

The Low Exposure group is loaded with great GPP plays! But I think we can see easily why I do not like all them as much as others. It is the Course History, it is very brutal. But all of these golfers are either strong stat fits or in good recent form. Some also played last week so they will have that slight edge as well.

Ryan Armour I feel is the opposite. He is someone that I think you could get away with playing in cash.

Lower Exposure: Barnes, Kizzire, Lingmerth, and Cink

All three I think hold some solid GPP upside as well, all three are golfer that I think give us low own upside gpp winning potential but the most likely outcome is that they willl not be good.

Player Pool Breakdown:

Player Pool is rank in order

(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)

Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.

GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.

Cash: Core plays + High Exposure + Poston, Knox, Baddeley, Armour

GPP: Montgomery, Hoge, Spaun, Smalley, Svensson, Lipsky, Kizzire, Lingmerth, Cink

*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive. (Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)

Two builds that I like this week are listed below. The approach was "Studs" and "Duds", and "Fair and Balanced"

The second one we toss in Grillo as the last player in who is a very solid play as well. Just not someone I would specifically targets over other golfers in his price point range because of the other golfers we are already one. But in this sense where we can fit them all in I sort of like it.

Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why. \

*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point. (Comes out Tuesday Evening)

Hideki, and Keegan are really the forgotten good plays this week. They have just as much upside as anyone in the field. If they do end up being this undervalued this is a huge spot to gain some leverage on the field. Something to monitor.

We see that there is not really a "good" play that is too over owned this week. But we are seeing a lot of the solid GPP plays get more ownership than they should be getting. This is also something to pay attention to.

Over Owned / Under Owned: