The 2025 Truist Championship + Myrtle Beach Clasic: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)
- 925 Sports
- May 7
- 8 min read
As the PGA TOUR rolls into Flourtown, Pennsylvania, for the 2025 Truist Championship at the historic Philadelphia Cricket Club’s Wissahickon Course, fantasy golf enthusiasts are gearing up for a unique challenge. This sixth Signature Event of the season, typically held at Quail Hollow, brings a fresh test with its A.W. Tillinghast-designed par-70 layout, featuring firm bentgrass greens, 118 bunkers, and a premium on precision wedge play. With a star-studded 72-player field and no cut, every golfer has four rounds to rack up points, making your fantasy picks critical. From Rory McIlroy’s quest for a fifth title to under-the-radar value plays, here are the top fantasy golf picks to help you build a winning lineup for the Truist Championship.
Breaking down my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for this weeks tournament.
Betting Units Profit in 2025: 51.5
Weeks Cashed in DFS: 6/12 = 50% (6 pushes)
H2H Bets: 74/111 | 23
3-Ball: 82/192 | 16.9
FRL: 9/100| 46.1
Outrights: 2/122 | -72
Prop Sites: 75/123 | 37.43
2024 Outright Winners 14 = 144 Units Won
*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
This is another unique week this week in PGA DFS, typically speaking for these no-cut events we tend to want to go studs and duds, but when we look at the studs none of them feel full proof to finish top 10 (minus Rory). On top of that a lot of the golfers that are in the 9K, and 8K range could easily be priced higher than they are. Another factor is that the duds all really suck on paper as well. I have found myself going more with a fair and balanced build. Basically trying to avoid the guessing game of which stud golfer will show up this week.
KEY STATS:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Strokes Gained Approach (SG AP) Key Stat 1
Ball Striking (BS) Key Stat 2
Good Drive % (GD%) Key Stat 3
Strokes Gained Around the Green (SG ARG) Key Stat 4
Birdie to Bogey Ratio (B2B) Key Stat 5
This is a new tournament and a new course. With that we are guessing this week as to what the key stats will be. How I came up with the Key Stats for this week was looking at similar courses to this one and seeing what the key stats were collectively for those courses. What I came up with is that this is a second shot golf course, this is a course that by design demands accuracy. That being said this course does not have PGA Tour players playing on it regularly, we do see sometimes courses that are designed to be accuracy based courses simply get over-powered by golfers. Now golfers that do try to over-power the course could find themselves in bad spots and having some blowup holes. Again we don't know, we are just making our best guess as to what the key stats will be this week.
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Due to us not having any course history I will be looking at tournaments that have similarities to this course, courses that have been played over the past year as well. I personally think that LACC is the best comp course but we are far removed from that tournament, and I don't think looking at this is statically relevant.
Comp Courses
RBC Heritage 2025
Players Championship 2025
Wyndham Championship 2024
Charles Schwab Challenge 2024
Weather:
Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather
Rain is in the forecast this week, which I think could lead to this course playing easier than expected. The green designs are one of the biggest defenses this course has, and if the greens are playing soft golfers will be able to attack pins more, thus leading to a lot more scoring opportunity's.
BETTING PICKS:
First Round Leader
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.
Patrick Cantlay 28/1
Corey Conners 35/1
Xander Schuaffele 25/1
Rory 12/1
Russell Henley 35/1
Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets
Daniel Berger 1.41/1
Corey Conners 1.14/1
Patrick Cantlay 1.3/1
Matchup Tournament Bets:
Best matchup bet for the week.
More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.
Patrick Cantlay beating Justin Thomas +100 Draftkings
Sungjae Im beating Daniel Berger +110 BetMGM
Corey Conners beating Tommy Fleetwood +100 Draftkings
More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting Sheet
Outright Bets:
2023 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.
Last week Scottie Scheffler was considered a "Good" Outright bet and won easily. This week all the golfers that we would be betting on to win are popping up as good outright bets so that makes this week more simple. The tough part is how many, and whether or not yo want to bet on Rory to win. If you don't bet on Rory, Keegan would be a good next option from the players I am betting on.
Bets:
Patrick Cantlay 20/1
Collin Morikawa 14/1
Russell Henley 35/1
Tommy Fleetwood 28/1
Russell Henley 35/1
Sepp Straka 45/1
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