The 2025 CJ Cup Byron Nelson: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)
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- 4 hours ago
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Breaking down my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for this weeks tournament.
Betting Units Profit in 2025: 65.43
Weeks Cashed in DFS: 6/11 = 54% (5 pushes)
H2H Bets: 72/108 | 21
3-Ball: 81/188 | 19.9
FRL: 9/93| 53.1
Outrights: 1/111 | -64
2024 Outright Winners 14 = 144 Units Won
*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: RED
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
In my opinion, this is the toughest week for DFS based on paper. While I find many of the betting odds appealing, the DFS salaries seem accurate across the board, and there aren't many safe picks available at any price. Additionally, there aren't many sensible GPP-only options. As a result, I'll be reducing the amount I enter this week.
KEY STATS:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Birdie or Better % (BOB) Key Stat 1
Ball Striking (BS) Key Stat 2
Long Iron Scoring (200+) Key Stat 3
Strokes Gained Tee To Green (SGT2G) Key Stat 4
Par 5 Scoring (Par 5) Key Stat 5
This course have proven to be a birdie fest, which further amplifies the randomness that we could see this week. Another issue that we have is we really only get two key stats that have led to some predictability here Birdie or Better % and the Long Iron Scoring. Both make sense that they are key stats, its a scoring fest so BOB% makes sense, and it is a longer track so Long Iron Scoring makes sense. What I found interesting is that Driving Distance and Strokes Gained Off the Tee do not statically play a big impact nor did Total Driving. Strokes Gained Tee To Green always is a key stat but in simple golfers do need to be on their game SGT2G to have a good week.
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Last 4 years course history.
Weather:
Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather
Weather does not seem to be an issue.
BETTING PICKS:
First Round Leader
IÂ will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.
Stephan Jaeger 55/1
Ben Griffin 50/1
Byeong Hun An 40/1
Jacob Bridgeman 60/1
Taylor Moore 70/1
Mackenzie Hughes 50/1
Will Zalatoris 60/1
Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets
Trey Mullinax 1.71/1
Matt Wallace 1.38/1
Nico Echavarria 1.68/1
Isaiah Salinda 1.67/1
Matchup Tournament Bets:
Best matchup bet for the week.
More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.
Harry Hall beating Thorbjorn Olesen -110 Draftkings
Ben Griffin beating Byeong Hun An +100 Draftkings
Ryo Hisatsune beating Taylor Moore -105 Draftkings
More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting SheetÂ
Outright Bets:
2023 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)
Picture 1Â = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.
Ben Griffin was a good outright bet last week as well and ended up winning, because he won last week I do not see myself getting to him as an outright bet this week. With Scottie I feel like the move is to early bet Scottie at 3.5/1, and then Jordan Spieth, and Stephan Jaeger.
Bets:
Jordan Spieth 18/1
Stephan Jaeger 45/1
Sungjae Im 25/1 BetMGM
Si Woo Kim 30/1
Will Zalatoris 50/1 BetMGM
Taylor Moore 66/1 BetMGM
Longshot Bets (half units bets)
Ryo Hisatsune 70/1 FanDuel - Top 20 bet at 3/1
Henrik Norlander 110/1 BetMGM - Top 20 Bet at 3.3/1
Hayden Springer 175/1 Betonline - Top 20 at 4/1
Sami Valimaki 110/1 FanDuel
Data Tag: Core Plays
Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"
Scottie Scheffler is the the only safe play on paper, and he is priced that way. If you can fit him into your builds you should.
Data Tag: High Exposure
Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
I agree that these golfers are all great plays on paper, but it does really show how good the pricing is this week. On top of that none of these golf plays are full proof.
The golfer that I will probably have some of my highest exposure to is Ryo Hisatune who has made 4 straight cuts on the PGA Tour including a top 5 finish in that span. He finished 13th at this event last year and is a top 5 stat fit. The concern is that he only ranks out as the 71st best Specialist so not a full proof play but given the field this week he somewhat look like elite value.
The other plays are solid in terms of upside on paper, Jordan Spieth to me is a better click (even though he is priced that way). I also like Jaeger a little bit more as well especially considering their price. They are both valued as Mid Exposure Plays.
Data Tag: Mid Exposure
Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.
Now although I like the High Exposure Plays on paper I do not see much of a difference between the golfer in this range.
Si Woo Kim, and Jordan are golfers that of some local ties to the area. Both have the upside to go out and win. Both have finished runner-up at this event over the past 4 years.
I am a little bit shocked that the data does not like Jaeger a bit more, I see 3 straight made cuts at this event, and 5 straight cuts on the PGA Tour. He ranks top 30 or better in all the key metrics. I really like Jaeger a bunch. The one concern would be his stat fit. At this price to only get the 28th best stat fit in the field is a worry, but again that is the week we have.
Harry Hall is a great Specialist and I think he has the upside to contend. Sam Stevens also has local ties, and is a top 5 Specialist. Both are great GPP plays.
Gerard is in great form and he is a solid click to me.
Henrik Norlander is another golfer that we are getting some value with. He ranks in the 6th best form in the field, and ranks out to 5 in birdie or better %. He does have course history although not the best. I think he gives us a good chance at a made cut while being at a cheap price tag.
*Keith Mitchell is not in the field.
Data Tag: Low Exposure
Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays
I will not be covering every golfer in this section but highlighting some.
A lot of golfers in this range have a chance to have great weeks as a lot of them are good stat fits or are in good recent form. The issue with most of them is that they have poor course history or their form has been pretty hit or miss.
Again they all seem properly valued given their safety but we do have a lot of sub 9K golfers that could finish top 10 or even win. The golfers I like the most are:
Jake Knapp
Jacob Bridgeman
Kevin Yu
Rico Hoey
Isaiah Salinda
Lee Hodges
Taylor Moore
Alejandro Tosti
Hayden Springer
Given their prices I do really like Alejandro Tosti and Hayden Springer. Both are top 15 stat fits. Springe has made 5 straight starts on the PGA Tour and Tosti has finished MC (last week) 2nd, 12th, and 5th. Really solid price tags.
Other Cheap Clicks I like: Ricky Castillo, Nate Lashley
Player Pool
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week. (This is based off of 20 entry max lineups. For 150 entry lineups I will open up the player pool slightly more but this will be determined by the lineup optimizer)
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Write-up)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
**Adding in Sami Valimaki as a GPP only Low Exposure Play. Basically the same as Tosti. I view Valimaki as very risk/reward though.
Cash
Scottie, Ryo, Jaeger, Jordan, Norlander, Springer, Lashley (Paired with Scottie)
GPP
Grifinn, Sungjae, Hun An, Si Woo, Valimaki, Tosti, Hoey, Moore, Pendrith
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Sample Lineup
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.
Lineup process wise I do really like Jordan, Jaeger, Springer, Hisatune, and Norlander as the first 5 in, after that we have $7,800 leftover and I feel stuck there. The golfer I end up clicking as a shoulder shrug click is Taylor Moore, but I don't love that. Again that is this week.
For GPPs I will be using the lineup builder. Getting 40% exposure to Scottie, and then 35% Jordan, Ryo, and Jaeger. After that I will be setting the Randomness to 5% and capping everyone else at round 15-20%. This is to embrace the randomness of this week.
Optimal GPP Lineups (Based on Highest Upside):
From the NineToFiveSports.Com PGA DFS Lineup Builder
Projected Ownership / Ownership Leverage
Projected ownership for that weeks golf tournament, Tag to call out if they are over-valued or under-valued. What position they are being valued at given their ownership at their price.
So again Scottie is coming in as Over Owned, and for the most part this season he has not rewarded his high price at his high ownerships. Do with that what you win. Due to him being so high owned a lot of the other top end golfers are not being properly valued. That is what makes this week interesting for GPPs.