Zurich Classic 2025: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)

The write-up this week is going to be a trimmed up version of what it typically is due to the natural of the event being a team based event.

Breaking down my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for this weeks tournament.

Betting Units Profit in 2025: 75.43

Weeks Cashed in DFS: 6/11 = 54% (5 pushes)

H2H Bets: 70/106 | 19

3-Ball: 81/188 | 19.9

FRL: 9/89| 58.1

Outrights: 1/104 | -57

Prop Sites: 70/115| 35.43

2024 Outright Winners 14 = 144 Units Won

*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.

SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: RED

Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.

This week is a little bit of a give and take when it comes to Fantasy Golf. It is a week in which we know that we are going to be wrong a decent amount as this event has a lot of randomness to it, especially given that only 33 teams will make the cut. For PGA DFS purposes I fully expect to have a majority of my lineups end up with 4/6 across the cut line.

Just as an FYI the NineToFive Lineup Builder will only have 1 player from a team in there for their projections as we can only roster one teammate per lineup.

KEY STATS:

*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.

• Birdie To Bogey Ratio (2B) Key Stat 1

• Strokes Gained Approach (SG AP) Key Stat 2

• Good Drive % (GD %) Key Stat 3

• Par 4 Scoring (Par 4 Scoring) Key Stat 4

• Ball Striking (BS) Key Stat 5

  
  

This week we are looking at more general stats as it is a team event we do not have a perfect sample of which key stat will be predictive of success.

Course History:

Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)

• Last 4 years course history.

  
  

Weather:

Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather

Weather does not seem to be an issue.

BETTING PICKS:

First Round Leader

I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.

• Poston/Mitchell - 28/1 BetMGM

• Hoey/Ryder - 45/1 BetMGM

• Straka/Garnett - 40/1

• Lowry/McIlroy - 11/1

• Rai/Theegala - 25/1 BetMGM

Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets

Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets

• No 3-Ball Bets this week.

Matchup Tournament Bets:

Best matchup bet for the week.

More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.

• Sepp Straka / Brice Garnett +105

• JT Poston / Keith Mitchell +210

  
  

More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting Sheet 

Outright Bets:

2023 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)

Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.

Using the typical standards for "Good" outright bets we only have 1 team that qualifies for that. The top team and the team with bad odds. I think if you're betting on Rory and Lowry that is the only bet that you're making.

Bets:

• Moore/Clark - 22/1

• Detry/Macintyre - 20/1

• Poston/Mitchell - 18/1 Bovada

• Hoey/Ryder - 50/1

• Garnett/Straka - 55/1 BetOnline

• Wallace/Olesen - 50.1 Bovada

• Rai/Theegala = 25/1 BetMGM

Bets I also like:

• Daniel Berger top 20 2/1

• Bud Cauley top 20 2/1

• Denny McCarthy top 20 2/1

Player Pool

Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week. (This is based off of 20 entry max lineups. For 150 entry lineups I will open up the player pool slightly more but this will be determined by the lineup optimizer)

CASH AND GPP PLAYS:

(Finalized on Tuesday Member Write-up)

Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.

GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.

Cash

• Core + High Exposure Plays

GPP

• Rai, Wallace, Moller, Yu, Hoffman

Sample Lineup

*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.

Optimal GPP Lineups (Based on Highest Upside):

From the NineToFiveSports.Com PGA DFS Lineup Builder

Projected Ownership / Ownership Leverage

Projected ownership for that weeks golf tournament, Tag to call out if they are over-valued or under-valued. What position they are being valued at given their ownership at their price.

N/a this week.