Mexico Open 2026: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)
Jumping into a quick straightforward breakdown of the Mexico Open. Few plays, simple bets, and easy builds.
Also I just pushed a recent update to the website, the NineToFive Sports Fantasy Golf Hub. This is a pre-tournament golf tool that users can use for research, DFS, and betting tips. This is the first rollout version of the tool, so there might be some slight errors. For instance I realized the logic for Ownership Leverage needs to be updated for no-cut events (inside the Fantasy Golf Hub; still working at the normal location). This week is a standard cut event (top 65 + ties), so that should not be the issue here. You have also probably noticed updates to the Leaderboard / Showdown page (not the PGA Leader Board), and the Lineup Builder. I will hopefully be getting out a video soon covering all of those updates. This can be found by going to the Member Tools page. https://www.ninetofivesports.com/member-tools
*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
I like this week because it does seem straightforward. The issue is that if any of the easier plays miss it could end up being a bad week.
KEY STATS:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2025, 2024, 2023, and 2022 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Weather:
Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather
BETTING PICKS:
First Round Leader
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.
CoreyConners 40/1
Max Homa 45/1
Kevin Roy 55/1
Ben Griffin 35/1
Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets
Matchup Tournament Bets:
Best matchup bet for the week.
More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.
Outright Bets:
2024 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.
I think this week is a much better top 20 week where most of the golfers that I am on we can get at at least +100 to top 20. The outright bets that I am on are:
Doug Ghim 18/1
Zach Bachou 50/1
Jordan Smith 48/1
Jackson Suber 36/1
Tom Kim 18/1
Data Tag: Core Plays
Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"
No Core Plays this week, although I will be considering Doug Ghim as a Core Play.
Data Tag: High Exposure
Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
As I mentioned I really like Doug Ghim, I view him as more of a Core Play. The one knock on him is the missed cut at this event 2 years ago. Besides that looks like a good, and safe play.
Jordan Smith, ranks top 20 in all the key metrics that we look at, and looks very safe on paper given his price.
I have had a tough time getting to Wyndham Clark, mostly just due to price.
Data Tag: Mid Exposure
Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.
I terms of upside I do like Ben James, and Blades Brown both of them could, and should be in contention, but at the same time I view them as not nearly as safe as we would want them to be at their price. I would rather get to Tom Kim who is both safe, and should have plenty of upside.
Zach Bachau I like as he has finished top 25 or better in his last 4 starts, and is coming in off of a 9th place finish. He could be a better stat fit overall but nothing that is really concerning. He does have course experience although that was a missed cut 3 years ago. At least he has course history.
Zac Blair I really like him at this price, he is a cheap option that if he is on his game will be a potential top 20 finish. Same goes for Billy Horschell who has also had a good fall swing.
Neal Shipley is someone I have properly overlooked but he certainly has shown upside, ranks out as the 2nd best specialist. He is also coming in off of two recent top 10 finishes.
Data Tag: Low Exposure
Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays
Value plays that I like this week are pictured below.
The players that I like the most here are Suber, Crowe, Roy Chan Kim, Ekcroat, and Keefer. These are all players that I like as top 20 bets.
Suber has made 5 straight cuts on tour and rank top 10 or better in 3 of our key stats.
Crowe has 4 straight made cuts, including a top 3 finish two events ago. He ranks out as a top 10 stat fit. Rank out top 5 in 3 of the key stats. I think he is someone we could see in contention to win.
Roy has two top 20 finishes at this event, and his made 9 straight cuts ina row on the PGA Tour. The one concern from him is that he is not the best stat fit, but that is why we are getting him this cheap.
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