Bank of Utah Championship 2026: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)
This week we have a full-field FedExCup Fall event at Black Desert Resort for the Bank of Utah Championship. There still is not a huge list of players I think we should be going out of our way to force, which simplifies the week. This ends up being more of a quick preview as a result.
Also I just pushed a recent update to the website, the NineToFive Sports Fantasy Golf Hub. This is a pre-tournament golf tool that users can use for research, DFS, and betting tips. This is the first rollout version of the tool, so there might be some slight errors. For instance I realized the logic for Ownership Leverage needs to be updated for no-cut events (inside the Fantasy Golf Hub; still working at the normal location). This week is a standard cut event (top 65 + ties), so that should not be the issue here. You have also probably noticed updates to the Leaderboard / Showdown page (not the PGA Leader Board), and the Lineup Builder. I will hopefully be getting out a video soon covering all of those updates. This can be found by going to the Member Tools page. https://www.ninetofivesports.com/member-tools
*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
Mostly straightforward week in regards to who we should be on, but there is still some noise in how we get there. Black Desert is in year three now, so we do have course history, but the sample is still thin and a lot of this field is coming off of a long layoff. It is a scorable track if you drive it well, with lava, bunkers, and a couple water holes waiting if you miss. Easy scoring plus a Fall field usually means higher variance. If not for some easy clicks due to pricing and course form, I would have this closer to a red week.
KEY STATS:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2025, 2024, 2023, and 2022 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Only 2 years of course history.
Weather:
Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather
Great weather projected for this week.
BETTING PICKS:
First Round Leader
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.
Michael Brenna 30/1
Doug Ghim 35/1
Kevin Yu 45/1
Jackson Koivun 27/1
Jackson Suber 40/1
Rico HOey 60/1
Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets
Matchup Tournament Bets:
Best matchup bet for the week.
More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.
Outright Bets:
2024 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.
This is not a great outright board in terms of “must-bet” prices, but there are a few I will play.
Doug Ghim 23/1–27/1
Ben Kohles 45/1–60/1
Michael Brennan 16/1–18/1
Ben James 16/1–20/1
Chris Kirk 50/1 if you want a longer shot with ball-striking
Top 20 Bets (including ties): Make sure the ticket is paying ties. FanDuel has been the better Top 20 book this week.
Michael Brennan +108
Doug Ghim +115
Ben James +130
Kevin Yu +162
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +200
Rico Hoey +205
Stephan Jaeger +205
Ben Kohles +250
Kevin Roy +250
Zac Blair +400
Priority T20 card for me is Ghim, Kohles, Roy, and Yu. Brennan is the floor play if you want a smaller unit on the defending champ. Koivun’s Top 20 number is too short after the Presidents Cup — I would rather use him in DFS than bet him to finish T20.
Data Tag: Core Plays
Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"
Only one core play this week in Michael Brennan, and give that he is a defending champ, and a bit pricey I view him more as a High Exposure play. Still should be safe, and still have plenty of upside. I just worry about the ability to pay off this price tag.
Data Tag: High Exposure
Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
Ben Kohles is clearly a poor price once again, because checking all the boxes this week. and could easily be $2,000 more expensive and that would be more logical than his current price.
After him I do like the idea of getting to at least 1 of Yu, Suber, and James and Koivun. I would rank them in that order as well. I mostly do not see a difference between those 4 thus I would rather go with the one that is the cheapest. This could be a sneaky way to gain leverage on the field as well.
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