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I think it is a good exercise that I can do to help the fantasy community think and play better by going over the ownership levels for that weeks tournament after lineup lock.
First we take a look at the screenshot from: https://www.ninetofivesports.com/golfownership
Last week in this write up we touched on the mistakes that were made with the ownerships, as we were left pondering why Brian Harman, and Keegan Bradley were not chalk. Where as a play like Max Homa ended up being over 10% owned.
Breaking Down Top 5 Highest Owned Players:
Actual Ownership 29.5%
It's really no shock to me that Scottie was this high owned. He was the clear cut play this week, checking all the boxes so it was no surprise to see him as the highest owned player on the slate as he should be.
Actual Ownership 23.9%
The first real shocked this week in ownership comes with Will Zalatoris. This further proves the "F IT" mentality that PGA DFS players have been rolling with this year. Although Zalatoris ranked out well in the model he was coming off of a missed cut, and more so he was coming off of the high that was the Masters finish. I am guessing home town narrative played a huge roll in this ownership, as well as people that had FOMO. Zalatoris should have more pressure this week playing at his home course. It will be interesting to see what he does with that. To me the safer route was Palmer, and Scheffler, and Fitzpatrick. Zalatoris was not the wrong play, but the ownership is wrong. Hoping that people do not get rewarded for this play.
Actual Ownership 23.5%
Bryson was projected to be the highest owned player on the slate but as the night rolled on people must have opted to go the safer lineup approach. Bryson was the clear cut best play this week, but I felt like playing him would not lead you down the right lineup path. To me it was shocking to see him this high owned.
Actual Ownership 19.3%
I feel like this ownership is correct for the red hot Spieth, but also he was coming into this event after having not played a lot due to him getting Covid. People saw that report, and they must have simply shrugged their shoulders.
Actual Ownership 18.2%
Another big shock to me is Rahm's ownership this week. I am struggling to see how people were able to fit all of these higher priced players into their builds. Don't get me wrong Rahm was an elite play even coming off of the missed cut, but he was still coming off of a missed cut, and still not as good of a play as Bryson or Scottie this week.
WHAT WERE THEY THINKING?:
The biggest shock to me is that people seemed to go more of a studs and duds approach rather than going the fair and balanced approach. That being said somehow Wyndham Clark ended up being more owned than Vincent Whaley at the same price. I get why some might throw Clark into about 5% of their builds but Clark being 13.5% owned was too high. Clark ranked 68th in the model this week point to him missing the cut this week. Players priced around Clark that were better plays were Kizzire, Whaley, Straka, and Vegas.
Speaking of Kizzire people ended up on him much more than expected. (8% more). I get what people were seeing with Kizzire especially if they had to be on him, due to going with the riskier lineup approach.
The highest owned value play (sub $6,000) ended up being KH Lee at 6.5%. The top rated value play for 925 this week was Josh Teater, and he is sitting at 3.3% ownership.
OWNERSHIP DO OVERS:
I feel like people thought Vincent Whaley would be chalky but it was shocking to see him at 8.4% this week. I thought for sure with him actually getting chatter this week he would have ended up being at least 15% owned.
I am seeing Ben Martin, Matt Kuchar, Sergio all at lower than 7% ownership which to me is a bit shocking. Kuchar played well at Texas courses lately.
Sergio was an elite stat fit that I thought more people would take the risk with him as that has been the theme for people in 2021. He has the upside to go out and win, at a course to that seems to be a perfect fit for him.
Ben Martin was one that people had to work for so I could see when people didn't end up on him but 5% was a pleasant surprise. I am sure the people that choose not to roster Ben Martin this week are kicking themselves after seeing his ownership at only 5% Ben Martin ranked top 20 in the model and should have been a huge ownership leverage opportunity for people.
Hideki and Si Woo Kim: Hideki ended up being around 6% owned this weke but ranked out as a top 13 stat fit. I am not sure how people clicked on Jordan's, and Brook's name that much more than they did Hideki's. Si Woo Kim's ownership makes sense in retrospect because of the lineup path that people ended up on but Si Woo Kim was checking all the boxes this week coming in ranked as a top 15 play. You could have got him for 9.5% this week.