Sanderson Farms Championship: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)

SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Red

Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.

I really like the lineups that I am able to get to this week. The issue that we have this week is the amount of time off most of the golfers in the field have had since they last played. The more time off a player has since their last competitive round the more variance we see in their results. That is why this event tends to be a bit random. I expect low 6/6 lineups.

KEY STATS:

*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.

• Birdie to Bogey Ratio (B2B) Key Stat 1

• Ball Striking (BS) Key Stat 2

• Total Driving (TD) Key Stat 3

• Strokes Gained Approach (SG AP) Key Stat 4

Course History:

Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)

Last 4 years course history.

Weather:

Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather

Good weather.

BETTING PICKS:

First Round Leader

I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.

• Emiliano Grillo 50/1

• Akshay Bhatia 36/1

• Michael Thorbjornson 35/1

• Kevin Yu 40/1

• Rico Hoey 45/1

• Mark Hubbard 60/1

• Alex Smalley 45/1

Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets

Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets

• Alex Smalley

• David Lipsky

• C Bez

• Antonie Rozner

• Thomas Rosenmueller

  
  

Matchup Tournament Bets:

Best matchup bet for the week.

More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.

• Grillo beating Svensson

  
  

More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting Sheet 

Outright Bets:

2023 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)

Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.

We are getting no "Good" outright bets this week, so we are looking at possible outright bets instead. All 5 are clicks that I like this week and am ecited to get to.

Bets:

• Mark Hubbard 61/1

• Emiliano Grillo 41/1

• Akshay Bhatia 20/1

• Vince Whaley 61/1

• Rico Hoey 36/1

• Michael Thorbjornsen 23/1

• Patrick Fishburn 61/1

  
  

Data Tag: Core Plays

Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"

We have 0 Core Plays on paper this week which should tells us about the potential variance of the week that we have.

The players that I will be treating as core plays are Bhatia, Grillo, Hubbard, and Whaley. 3 of these players are considered High Exposure Plays.

Data Tag: High Exposure

Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)

It is a little bit refreshing to get the top priced play on the slate below 12,000. This week the top priced play is Akshay Bhatia, who is coming into this event with the best form in the field. He is a good stat fit, and has played this course. He has the highest projected made cut % this week as well. (Only 71%)

Michael Thorbjonsen Is a strong stat fit this week, played well at this course last year, and relatively speaking, and especially for this field is in good form. Overall he looks like a pretty safe play on paper. I just worry we can get slightly better plays at lower prices.

Mark Hubbard made 7 straight cuts in a row, and has a top 5 finish in a recent start. Overall he is coming into this event with the 2nd best form in the field. He has played this course 3 times making the cut each year while tacking on two top 10 finishes. His game doesn't have any flaws for this course.

Vince Whaley has made the cut in this event 3 straight years in a row. He is also coming into this event with the highest made cut straight among the golfers in the field making 13 straight cuts. He is the best specialist in the field, and at his price he is a clear cut option.

Data Tag: Mid Exposure

Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.

Grillo is the other player that I am considering as a Core Play this week. He has been in great form lately, making the cut in his last 4 starts as well as a top 5 finish in his last start. He has made 3 out of 4 cuts here in the last 4 years with a top 10 finish mixed in there. He is also the 3rd best stat fit in the field.

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