Baycurrent Classic: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)

SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Red

Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.

Limited field event, at a new course, a no-cut event, with a lack of good pay up plays, what could go wrong. Needless to say I expect this to be a pretty random event to predict.

KEY STATS:

*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.

• Birdie to Bogey Ratio (B2B) Key Stat 1

• Ball Striking (BS) Key Stat 2

• Total Driving (TD) Key Stat 3

• Strokes Gained Approach (SG AP) Key Stat 4

More looking at general key stats for this week since we have not seen this course in action yet. To come up with the key stats I used the top key stats from the comp courses (tournaments) that are listed below.

Course History:

Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)

No course history = comp course history

• CH1 = Sanderson Farms Championship

• CH2 = Valspar Championship

• CH3 = RBC Heritage

• CH4 = John Deere Classic

These courses all hold similar characteristics to the course that we will see this week mainly that they are all parkland style courses.

Weather:

Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather

Looks like we could be in for a little bit of wind. This will be something to pay attention to on showdown slates.

BETTING PICKS:

First Round Leader

I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.

• Chris Gotterup 30/1

• Kevin Yu 35/1

• Michael Thorbjorn 35/1

• Hideki Matsuyama 25/1

• Kurt Kitayama 33/1

• Vince Whaley 50/1

• Patrick Fishburn 50/1

Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets

Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets

Matchup Tournament Bets:

Best matchup bet for the week.

More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.

More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting Sheet 

Outright Bets:

2023 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)

Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.

Bets:

• Xander 12/1

• Kevin Yu 28/1

• Michael Thorbjornsen 31/1

• Michael Kim 41/1

• Vince Whaley 51/1

• Mark Hubbard 67/1

  
  

Data Tag: Core Plays

Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"

We have 0 Core Plays on paper this week which should tells us about the potential variance of the week that we have.

No Core Plays again this week. That tells us the variance that we should be expected this week.

Data Tag: High Exposure

Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)

We have 1 player that is considered a High Exposure play, and 0 Core Plays, this week could be ugly. I do think that this will be an event that Xander is able to get up for. We know he had a down year last year, but he is the best specialist, and still in the 4th best form in the field. I do think he is the most likely to win thus I do think we should be going out of our way to target him. The issue is that playing him is risky, as we need his upside. But you will see there's plenty of value on this slate, and that is party of what makes Xander appealing.

Data Tag: Mid Exposure

Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.

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