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AT&T BYRON NELSON: Core Plays + Outright Bets 2023



NineToFive's Core Plays since 2022 are 4.5% more likely to finish inside the top 10 than they are to miss the cut. NineToFive's Core Plays finished inside of the top 20 48% of the time.


Last week's Core Plays gave some great results with Sungjae Im returning a top-10 finish. Rickie Fowler continued to give us top 20 upside. The downside was that Jason Day hit a terrible shot on a par 17 where his ball would end up in the water causing a double bogey. This lead to him scoring a double moving from T35 to eventually finishing T69 one off of the cut line.


Worth mentioning that in the NineToFive Member Writeup Wyndham Clark was a High Exposure Play, ranking out as a top 10 play in the NineToFive Player Pool. He would end up winning, and end up in a lot of winning lineups for NineToFive Site members. If you are interested in joining click the link listed directly below.

For a bigger deep dive of what I am looking at for this week make sure to watch the video listed above as I breakdown everything for that tournament, including what are the key stats for that week.


*H1, H2, H3, H4 - Course/Event History.

**KS1, KS2, KS3, KS4 - Key Stat

***RF Stands for Recent Form


 

1) Scottie Scheffler

$11,900 DraftKings

$12,400 Fanduel

4.5/1 Outright Odds

AT&T Byron Nelson Core Play 1 Scottie Scheffler
AT&T Byron Nelson Core Play 1 Scottie Scheffler

A lot of the time people will tend to overcomplicate PGA DFS, I believe that is the direct reason why this season has been the easiest one thus far. A good example of that would be two weeks ago at the Mexico Open when Jon Rahm and Tony Finau were easy plug and plays given their price, and given the easy lineup construction with both of them in your builds. That combo ended up being 3% owned in cash and only 7% owned in GPPs.

To me, Scottie Scheffler feels a lot like Jon Rahm as a play at the Mexico Open where he is by far the class of the field. He ranks out as the best in Specialist Ranking (Specialist Ranking is taking all the unique course/event characteristics and putting them into a data point), Stat Fit, and Recent Form. His one knock this week data-wise is his course history where he has gone 2 for 2 finishing 15th and 47th.


When diving deeper into the Specialist Data Scottie ranks top 10 in both Location Rank (average finish on Texas-based tracks), and top 10 on Easy Scoring tracks. Both of which we will have today.


The issue we have with Scottie is what to do with him outright-wise at 4.5 to 1. I would say you could bet that, but then you would be limiting the amount of other outright bets you could make. Maybe a little FRL and Win would be the bet to go with for Scottie this week.

 

2) Matt Kuchar

$9,000 DraftKings

$10,800 Fanduel

30/1 Outright Odds

AT&T Byron Nelson Core Play # 2 Matt Kuchar
AT&T Byron Nelson Core Play # 2 Matt Kuchar

Matt Kuchar might not be a sexy pick this week but it is the correct play. Every week there are one or two players where because of their price they are golfer we are being forced into playing. That is what Matt Kuchar feels like this week.


Kuchar might not have the same local ties like Scottie Scheffler does to Texas but he does have the same elite Texas history, ranking out as the 4th best Texas Course player based off of average finish.


Key stat wise there is nothing alarming this week, he has been solid, especially considering the field this week.


What I think pops the most for Matt Kuchar this week is his form. Long Term, Short Term, Mid Term, all types of form Kuchar ranks top 10 in the field. That should vault him in potentially being in contention to win. At the very least he should give us a great chance at a made cut.

 

3) Michael Kim

$7,500 DraftKings

$9,100 Fanduel

90/1 Outright Odds

AT&T Byron Nelson Core Play #3 Michael Kim
AT&T Byron Nelson Core Play #3 Michael Kim

The Texas resident Michael Kim is coming to this event with some of the best form in the field. Making the cut in his last 7 events on the PGA Tour include a top 10 finish just last week. Kim really found himself last year on the KFT finishing as one of the best players on that Tour. He got off to a slow start on the PGA Tour but how now found his footing.


Prior to last year Michael Kim was not playing good golf, and the fact that he was able to finish 67th at this event in 2021 is shocking to me. That tells me that he has a good feel for this course.


The good part about Michael Kim is that he is one of the best plays in the field at a very cheap price, and we can also get him at great odds for outright betting. The bad thing is that he is going to be tough to trust, and he seems like one of those plays that is simply too good to be true. I for one will always take the top data plays, knowing that on average it will work out.

 

4) Mark Hubbard

$7,300 DraftKings

$8,900 Fanduel

90/1 Outright Odds

AT&T Byron Nelson Core Play #4 Mark Hubbard
AT&T Byron Nelson Core Play #4 Mark Hubbard

The first few plays are plays that I feel strongly are the correct plays given their prices. Considering how the rest of the field looks to me Mark Hubbard would be the next best option for the AT&T Byron Nelson, but it does feel like a step down from the previous three golfers.


Well what is there to like about Hubbard? He has made two straight cuts at TPC Craig Ranch finishing 32nd and 34th.


If you take out his missed cut at the team event he would have made 3 straight cuts with all of them being top 30 or better finishes.


A top 30 finish is what I am expecting out of him this week, but in a week where we can expect high variance given the easy scoring that is expect, anything can happen, and Mark Hubbard is a golfer that has been playing good enough golf that it would not be shocking to see him in contention on Sunday.a

 

If you enjoyed this writeup then you will enjoy NineToFive's Fantasy Golf Tools designed with you in mind for only $10 a month. Tools are listed below as well on 925's Golf Homepage.



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