Bank of Utah Championship: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)
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- 1 day ago
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SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
I actually like this week a little bit more than I thought I would. We are getting some softer prices for golfer that have played multiple events during the fall swing. The tough part is that we have only seen this course in action once on the PGA Tour, so we do have a lack of course history, and a lack of a full sample for what the key stats are.
KEY STATS:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Birdie or Better % (BOB) Key Stat 1
Ball Striking (BS) Key Stat 2
SG Putting (Strokes Gained Putting) Key Stat 3
200+ (200+ Scoring) Key Stat 4
Last year we saw this course being a birdie fest, so it is no surprise that Birdie or Better % is popping as one of the best key stats this week. We did see Strokes Gained putting matter more at this course more than on average for other courses.
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
No comp course history just the one start at this event last year.
CH1 =
CH2 = Black Desert Championship
CH3 =
CH4 =
Weather:
Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather
Weather looks ideal for this tournament.
BETTING PICKS:
First Round Leader
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.
Kurt Kitayama 35/1
Maverick McNealy 30/1
Kevin Yu 40/1
Michael Thorbjornsen 30/1
Matt McCarty 50/1
Vince Whaley 75/1
Mac Meissner 70/1
Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets
N/A this week.
Matchup Tournament Bets:
Best matchup bet for the week.
More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.
More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting Sheet
Outright Bets:
2023 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.
Bets:
Kitayama 23/1
Rico Hoey 26/1
Matt McCarty 31/1
Lee Hodges 62/2
Kevin Yu 26/1
William Mouw 51/1
Mac Meissner 58/1
Chrisitiaan Bezuidenhout 36/1
Michael Thorbjornsen 18/1
Data Tag: Core Plays
Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"
No Core Plays again this week. This at least is due to us not having enough course history.
Data Tag: High Exposure
Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
I personally feel like Hossler being a High Exposure play is way too high, but he is appealing as a GPP only play. He is a solid play overall and he does randomly pop. He did have a 10th place finish at this event last year as well. I will have exposure to him in GPPs just nothing too crazy.
I agree that Maverick McNealy is a great play on paper this week. The issue I have with him is his pricing. I like going with the more fair and balanced approach. If you can find a way to get to McNealy in your builds and you like the rest of your build by all means do it. I just haven't been able to do that thus far.
Data Tag: Mid Exposure
Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.
This is where we will be getting a majority of our plays starting with Michael Thorbjornsen. The issue with Thorbjornsen is the same issue with McNealy, his price, besides that he looks like a great play. He has played well in the fall including a 3rd place finish in his last event. He ranks out as a top 5 stat fit. He had to withdraw from this event last year, but when he did he was -4, so it was looking like it would be a great week for him. He is one of my favorite outright bets to win this week.
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