Blitmore Championship 2026: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)
This week we have a mostly full tournament field event, but there isn't that many players that I think we should be going out of our way to target. This will simplify the week a lot for us, this will end up being more of a quick preview for this tournament as a result.
Also I just pushed a recent update to the website, the NineToFive Sports Fantasy Golf Hub. This will be a pre-tournament golf tool that users can use for research, DFS, and betting tips. This is the first rollout version of the tool thus there might be some slight errors, for instance I realized the logic for the Ownership Leverage needs to be updated for no-cut events (inside the Fantasy Golf Hub, still working at the normal location). You also have probably noticed updates to the Leaderboard / Showdown page (not the PGA Leader Board), and the Lineup Builder. I will hoping be getting out a video soon cover all of those updates.
*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
Mostly straight forward week in regards to who we should be on but the process of getting to those plays could be wrong. This is a new course that we have not seen before, and it is a somewhat unique course in its look and setup. We use the specialist data, and comp courses to establish the top stat fits. On top of that a lot of the golfer we are targeting haven't played competitive golf in over 2 months. This could all lead to it being a higher variance event. If not for some easy clicks due to bad pricing i would have this labeled a red week.
KEY STATS:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Looking at more general stats for this week but we can see a few cheap players that might have some appeal at this track.
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2025, 2024, 2023, and 2022 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
No course history this week.
Weather:
Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather
Weather does not project to be an issue for this one.
BETTING PICKS:
First Round Leader
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.
Ben Kohles 70/1
Corey Conners 40/1
Rasmus Højgaard 45/1
Keita Nakajima 45/1
Ryo Hisatsune 50/1
Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets
None this week.
Matchup Tournament Bets:
Best matchup bet for the week.
More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.
None this week.
Outright Bets:
2024 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.
No good outright bets this week. 5 viable outright bets. I like Ben Kohles, Kevin Yu, Davis Thompson, Jacob Bridgeman and Patrick Fishburn this week.
Data Tag: Core Plays
Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"
No Core Plays this week.
Data Tag: High Exposure
Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
No High Exposure plays this week.
Data Tag: Mid Exposure
Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.
I do think that we should be trying to get to at least 3 of Jacob Bridgeman, Davis Thompson, Kevin Yu, and Ben Kohles into most of our builds. One player that I was overlooking prior to doing this writeup with Rico Hoey he also ends up looking like a quality play at a cheap price. I love his projected cut likelihood per vegas as well.
Max McGreevy has terrible form, but also would not be shocking to see him have random good week. I see him more as a final player into a build rather than someone that we should be going out of our way to target.
Data Tag: Low Exposure
Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays
Value plays that I like this week are pictured below.
One of the players that I like the most is not getting a Mid, or Low Exposure tag, and that player is Patrick Fishburn. Fishburn is a solid play across the board, with no real flaws in his game. Making 9 cuts in his last 10 tires with the only missed cut being due to one bad round. I like him a lot.
That being said I do like the prices for Christiaan Beuidenhout, and Kevin Roy. They are two plays that should hold both safety and upside. They are both top 25 in the field in form, and both are stat fits. I have been getting to the fair and balanced build this week, and these two players are part of the reason as to why.
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