Travelers Championship 2026: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)
- Jun 23
- 9 min read
Breaking down my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for this weeks tournament.
*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
With this being a Signature event we already know what the strategy for this week will be, we will be doing a studs and duds approach, and given the values that we have I think that is pretty much the approach we have to go with this week. My concern is that I like paying up for Scottie and locking in that safety, locking in that at least top 15 place finish with a great chance of winning. My concern would be if he doesn't play all that well, and if none of the values vastly out perform their salary like I am expecting them to.
KEY STATS:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Key Stats are based on the past U.S. Opens as well as the 2018 US Open when the tournament was played at the same course it is this week.
Birdie to Bogey Ratio (B2B) Key Stat 1
Total Driving (TD) Key Stat 2
Ball Striking (BS) Key Stat 3
Good Drive % (GD%) Key Stat 4
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Last 4 years course history.
Weather:
Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather
Again the really bad weather projects for Wednesday right now, sure that could change but right now all the buzz around the wind in the industry seems to be overplayed. That being said weather can change, and the slight rain that is in the mix could also create a little bit of variance, all-in-all though its looks like we are going to get lucky with the weather.
BETTING PICKS:
First Round Leader
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.
Ryan Fox 60/1
Ryan Gerard 55/1
Ludvig Aberg 27/1
Matt Fitzpatrick 30/1
Xander 25/1
Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets
Ryan Fox beating Matt Mccarty +215
Kurt Kitayama Beating Daniel Berger +190
Ludvig Aberg beating Ben Griffin +196
Matchup Tournament Bets:
Best matchup bet for the week.
More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.
More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting Sheet
See the 3 Ball Bets
Outright Bets:
2023 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.
No real shocks in regard to who the data is telling us are some of the best outright bets this week. The issue is we can't bet them all and in regards to Si Woo and Cantlay they are coming in off of a missed cut, but is that mentally refreshing for them to not have had to play the weekend at the US Open? Maybe that could be a thing. I think I will go with the approach I mentioned on my Final Thoughts video last week. I will be kept the outright card light to look to add an outright bet. Either one of the golfers above or player like JT and Cameron would be in play for me.
Bets:
Scottie 5/1
Kurt Kitayama 50/1
Ryan Fox 90/1
Data Tag: Core Plays
Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"
They are the top two plays on the board this week in terms of both safety and upside, but given the elite course history and the fact that Scottie ranks #1 in all the key metrics I think we just go with him this week in must of our builds and in our cash builds. It is easy to fit him into builds as well.
Xander I am fine with I just view him more as a shoulder shrug play given his price. That is basically all of the high priced golfers this week nobody that overly stands out as a play we have to get to.
Data Tag: High Exposure
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