RBC Canadian Open 2026: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)
- Jun 10
- 7 min read
Breaking down my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for this weeks tournament.
*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow/Green
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
I like the pricing that we are getting, I believe this creates a lot of wiggle room for us to be able to make good builds, and profitable builds. On paper I think this will be a more predictable week in regards to getting 5/6 across the cut line.
KEY STATS:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Key stats this week are based on the 2018 results for the BMW Championship, typical Donald Ross courses, and the typical PGA Championship key stats.
Birdie to Bogey Ratio (B2B) Key Stat 1
Driving Distance (DD) Key Stat 2
Ball Striking (BS) Key Stat 3
Strokes Gained Approach (SGAP) Key Stat 4
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
We only have one start at this specific course, I am only looking at last years tournament results for this.
Weather:
Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather
A little bit of a breeze this week, could lead to a tiny bit of variance but overall not too crazy.
BETTING PICKS:
First Round Leader
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.
Mac Meissner 60/1
Matt Fitzpatrick 30/1
Sudarshan Yellamaraju 75/1
Tommy Fleetwood 27/1
Collin Morikawa 40/1
Justin Rose 45/1
Bud Cauley 55/1
Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets
Dough Ghimi +103
Adrien Dumont De Chassart -104
Keith Mitchell +119
Matchup Tournament Bets:
Best matchup bet for the week.
More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.
More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting Sheet
Kristoffer Reitan +105 over Brooks
Alex Fitzpatrick -105 Over Eric Cole
Outright Bets:
2023 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.
Wyndham Clark is the only good outright bet we are getting, and the data here has nailed him in his last 2 events. He has finished 3rd, and 1st. I do see it, if his game is still on I do think he has a great chance to win.
Bets:
Wyndham Clark 24/1
Justin Rose 30/1
Nicolai Hojgaard 32/1
Sam Burns 14/1
Bud Cauley 45/1
Nick Taylor 37/1
Mac Meissner 55/1
Data Tag: Core Plays
Want to read more?
Subscribe to ninetofivesports.com to keep reading this exclusive post.
