BMW Championship 2026: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)

17 minutes ago
6 min read

The BMW Championship is a limited field event of only 50 golfers, thus this will be a more limited writeup.

Also I just pushed a recent update to the website, the NineToFive Sports Fantasy Golf Hub. This will be a pre-tournament golf tool that users can use for research, DFS, and betting tips. This is the first rollout version of the tool thus there might be some slight errors, for instance I realized the logic for the Ownership Leverage needs to be updated for no-cut events (inside the Fantasy Golf Hub, still working at the normal location). You also have probably noticed updates to the Leaderboard / Showdown page (not the PGA Leader Board), and the Lineup Builder. I will hoping be getting out a video soon cover all of those updates.

*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.

https://youtu.be/-Ugg06uPa7Y?si=njXXJuYgywdwQ1SR

SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow

Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. ***Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.*

Another week of Scottie, 3 values, 1 other stud, and shoulder shrug, or 3 studs and 3 values. That is the script for this week. For no-cut event we typically see that work, and it really comes down to whether or not Scottie shows up as to which lineup path will be correct.

The unique thing about this week is that we have not seen this course since 2018. So we are relatively guessing at which key stats we should be using. The comp course history is also a little be more difficult to peg down. (which I like creates for a fun watching environment)

KEY STATS:

*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.

Again it is a little more of guess as to which key stats we should be looking at this week.

Course History:

Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2025, 2024, 2023, and 2022 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)

Results from 2018. Noteworthy but more of a cherry on top.

Weather:

Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather

TBD

BETTING PICKS:

First Round Leader

I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.

Hideki 25/1
Burns 22/1

Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets

Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets

Matchup Tournament Bets:

Best matchup bet for the week.

More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.

Outright Bets:

2024 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)

Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.

Give me Sam Burns, Patrick Cantlay, and Hideki to win this week.

Data Tag: Core Plays

Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"

I don't really see the appeal of Collin Morikawa besides being a dart throw. He is a fine stat fit sure, and a great specialist, but the descending form does not appeal me in a limited field event.

Xander, and Fleetwood I view as more shoulder shrug pay up options.

Patrick Cantlay is really the only golf in this range that I am somewhat interested because his price. He has been playing better recently as well, and it a good dark horse to potentially win.

Data Tag: High Exposure

Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)

Hovland is one of the more interesting golf plays this week. He is ranking top 15 or better in all the key metrics. He is a golfer that when he is on he can really click and win.

I view Hideki and Scottie as the top two choices this week. Both could be better stat fits, but both are in elite form. Hideki has a good finish at one of the comp courses as well. It is pretty easy to fit them both into builds.

Data Tag: Mid Exposure

Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.

Basically half of the field is considered a Mid Exposure play. The ones that I like the most are Sam Burns, Tom Kim, Ryan Gerard, Michael Brennan, and Jacob Bridgeman.

Sam Burns is in the second best form in the field, the concern with him is his sat fit for this event. This makes him more of a hit or miss option.

Tom Kim is fairly priced, but is a quality play across the board. Same goes for Ryan Gerard, who is a little cheaper. The betting odds difference between the two is a little bit fascinating. Gerard is basically the same play as Kim but at 64/1 odds compared to 40/1 odds.

Michael Brennan is the 4th best stat fit in the field, and 8th form overall he is an interesting gpp flyer.

Bridgeman has been a safe and reliable click both on the comp courses and recent form. He is a fine stat fit. I really like him for stud and duds builds as I feel he will out produce this price.

Lastly I am getting a little intrigue by Matt Fitzpatrick, and Ludvig Aberg. Both playing well recently. Fitzpatrick rank top 12 or better in all the key metrics, and Aberg has is a top 5 stat fit and specialist.