BMW Championship 2025: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)
- 925 Sports
- Aug 13
- 7 min read
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow/Red
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
We really have two options this week in regards to betting and DFS. For DFS it is play Scottie and hope he wins, or go more fair and balanced. Both lineup paths I have really liked. For betting I do think we bet on Scottie and maybe on or two other golfers. It is a straight-forward small field event. We are limited with who we can be on due to the size of the field, and that is what makes this somewhat of an issue week.
KEY STATS:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Birdie or Better % (BOB) Key Stat 1
200+ Scoring (200+) Key Stat 2
Total Driving (TD) Key Stat 3
Strokes Gained Putting (SG P) Key Stat 4
Par 5 Scoring (Par 5) Key Stat 5
We have only seen the course that this event is being played at once recently, it was a fun tournament where Patrick Cantlay and Bryson battled it out in a playoff which Cantlay eventually winning. He was able to do this by scoring on the Par 5s, having a good long iron game and making putts. Now the course has changed a little but I still think it will play the same as it did in in 2021 if not emphasizing the key stats even more.
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Since we have only seen this course played once over the past 4 years we will be looking at a little comp course history as well.
H1: 2021 BMW Championship (this course)
H2: PGA Championship 2025
H3: Memorial 2025
H4: Tour Championship 2024
Weather:
Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather
Weather will not be an issue.
BETTING PICKS:
First Round Leader
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.
Sam Burns 33/1
Russell Henley 35/1
Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets
Matchup Tournament Bets:
Best matchup bet for the week.
More will be highlighted in the Showdown/Leaderboard You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.
More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting Sheet
Outright Bets:
2024 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.
Scottie Scheffler 3.4/1
Russell Henley 36/1
Ben Griffin 46/1
Data Tag: Core Plays
Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"
Yes I agree, Scottie is clearly the best playing in the field this week, He has 1 won in all of the comp courses that we are looking at, and even with how high priced he is we can still fit him into our builds.
Data Tag: High Exposure
Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
Want to read more?
Subscribe to ninetofivesports.com to keep reading this exclusive post.