FedEx St. Jude Championship 2026: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)
- 18 hours ago
- 8 min read
The golf playoffs are here, which means the limited field, no-cut events are back. This tends to be mean that we are going to chasing more of a studs and duds approach for our DFS builds, and that process ends up being pretty simple to do with the pricing that we have this week.
Also I just pushed a recent update to the website, the NineToFive Sports Fantasy Golf Hub. This will be a pre-tournament golf tool that users can use for research, DFS, and betting tips. This is the first rollout version of the tool thus there might be some slight errors, for instance I realized the logic for the Ownership Leverage needs to be updated for no-cut events (inside the Fantasy Golf Hub, still working at the normal location). You also have probably noticed updates to the Leaderboard / Showdown page (not the PGA Leader Board), and the Lineup Builder. I will hoping be getting out a video soon cover all of those updates.
*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
I do like a lot of the lineups that I have been able to make this week. Getting to 2 of the best players in the field, just needing them to play well. Then we get to a decent amount of too cheap values that are likely to outproduced their priec tag.
KEY STATS:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Where players tend to struggle at this course is if they are not being accurate off the tee, but it is the golfers that tend to be longer off the tee that are hitting fairways whom have the most success. This is a course where avoiding bogey's does matter a lot, but it is also an event that is a no cut event, so I will be targeting golfers that can score.
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2025, 2024, 2023, and 2022 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Weather:
Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather
Weather is not an issue this week.
BETTING PICKS:
First Round Leader
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.
Cameron Young 28/1
Sam Burns 27/1
Hideki 30/1
Scottie 14/1
Fleetwood 27/1
Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets
Matchup Tournament Bets:
Best matchup bet for the week.
More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.
Patrick Cantlay -163 over Theegala Fanduel
Kitayama -122 over Hojgaard Draftkings
More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting Sheet
Outright Bets:
2024 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.
Makes a lot of sense for the FedEx Cup Playoffs that we are getting plenty of golfers that are considered good right bets bets this week. I only few like getting to a handful of these.
Tommy Fleetwood: 21/1
Collin Morikawa: 27/1
Sam Burns: 22/1
Patrick Cantlay: 32/1
Hideki 29/1
Data Tag: Core Plays
Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"
Tommy Fleetwood, and Sam Burns together in the same build are great ways to start out the week. Now I like the idea of getting to Scottie more, but Fleetwood, and Burns both have had good course history, and both have been in great form. I do expect them both to be in contention to win. The issue is the both have had a tough time closing the door. But this is a good example of what is appealing about this week. Both these golfers are easy to get to.
Data Tag: High Exposure
Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
I have had a tough time getting to Robert Macintyre, and Si Woo Kim, both are golfers that can be pretty hit or miss, and this is a week where I really do not want to chase that, and that is mostly due to their price, being at spots where I have not felt the need to get to.
I would rather pay up more for Collin Morikawa, or Hideki and getting a slightly worse value in my build. Hideki has been one of the hottest golfers on tour finishing top 7 or better in three straight starts. His worst finish at this course was a 17th. He is the best specialist in the field. He should be both safe, and have upside. I am a little surprised that Morikawa is priced above him due to the form that Hideki has been in, but Collin is also an appealing click.
Bridgeman is just a quality value.
Data Tag: Mid Exposure
Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.
Basically the whole field is listed as a good mid exposure play, and although I don't really disagree there are a few golfers that stand out to me here that I will be going out of my way to target. Scottie, Cantlay, Koivun, Brenna, Bhatia, and Cauley.
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