Butterfield Bermuda Championship: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)

*Note: As of me writing this Google services are down, a lot of the NineToFive tools are power through them. So while the outage is taking place a lot of the tools may be down.

SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow

Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.

I really like the odds that we are getting for this week, and I really like the lineups that we have been able to make. This tournament has typically been one of the easier ones to predict, and this week that could be the case as well, we are getting a lot of golfers that had played during the fall swing, while also having course history.

KEY STATS:

*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.

• Birdie or Better % (BOB) Key Stat 1

• Ball Striking (BS) Key Stat 2

• SG PUTT (Strokes Gained Putting) Key Stat 3

• PAR5 (Par 5 Scoring) Key Stat 4

Course History:

Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)

Last 4 years course history.

Weather:

Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather

Weather looks good.

BETTING PICKS:

First Round Leader

I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.

Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets

Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets

Matchup Tournament Bets:

Best matchup bet for the week.

More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.

More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting Sheet 

Outright Bets:

2023 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)

Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.

Bets:

• Rico Hoey 21/1

• Nicolas Echavarria 36/1

• Patrick Rodgers 36/1

• Pierceson Coody 36/1

• Vince Whaley 41/1

• Chad Ramey 41/1

• Thorbjorn Olesen 23/1

• Matti Schmid 36/1

  
  

Data Tag: Core Plays

Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"

No data tag core plays which is a little surprising to me. I see Vince Whaley as someone that should be a Core Play. He has made 17 straight cut, and ranks top 10 in all the key metrics that we look at. (indeHe is listed as a High Exposure play.)

Data Tag: High Exposure

Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)

I am not as high on Smalley as the data is suggesting, due to his recent form, but there is no denying is upside. He finished 6th at and event just two starts ago, and he has finished top 30 or better in three straight starts at this event. He is also a good stat fit, I just think he should be treated as more of a low exposure play.

Mark Hubbard I view as more of a mid exposure play and this is mostly due to his recent form.

Matt Kuchar, Rico Hoey, and Vince Whaley I really like.

Data Tag: Mid Exposure

Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.

I really like Perez, Schmid, Coody, and Olesen I think the mid exposure trade is good for them. Plays like this are why I like this week, they all look great on paper, sure for DFS it is tough to get more than 1 of them in a build but for betting purposes they are appealing.

Kevin Roy i think is a good punt play, Mid Exposure tag is a little rich for me though.

Max Mcgreevy is a play that I was overlooking, but at his price he is certainly someone that I think we should be looking at. 3 straight made cuts at this event, good stat fit, and 3 straight made cuts on the PGA Tour with a recent top 12 finish.

Data Tag: Low Exposure

Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays

I will not be covering every golfer in this section but highlighting some.

I do feel like Kevin Yu, Nicolas Echavarria, Patrick Rodgers, and Jesper Svensson are all priced up a little bit too much but are all plays that I could see winning. Same goes for Chad Ramey who is at least a little cheaper for DFS purposes so he is a little bit more in play but he also holds more risk.

The three plays I will be getting more than what the data is suggesting is Seamus Power, Kris Ventura, and Greyson Sigg. All three have been playing well recently. Power and Sigg have great course history. Ventura is a great stat fit. They all feel too cheap.

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