CJ Cup Byron Nelson 2026: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)
- 9 hours ago
- 8 min read
This week ends up being a Scottie or the field week for both DFS and betting. He is clearly the best option and he is being priced that way. This makes this week a little bit more difficult because the next few golfers that are the most likely to win, and the next best plays are Si Woo Kim, Jordan Spieth, and Brooks Koepka all of whom can be very hit or miss. So it is not even a lock that fading Scottie for one or two of those three will lead to success. Now there is enough value for us to really make any lineup path work. Scottie builds, Si Woo, and Jordan builds, or just fair and balanced builds. This has been the route I have been going this week, and I decently like all the builds that I have been able to make, just do not love any builds. That being said, I do think we are getting some pretty good betting odds on some fun longshot bets whether that be to win or finish top 20.
Breaking down my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for this weeks tournament.
*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
See the opener for most of my thoughts, but this week is a higher variance week due to it being a course that typically yields to very low scores.
KEY STATS:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Key stats this week are based on the 2018 results for the BMW Championship, typical Donald Ross courses, and the typical PGA Championship key stats.
Birdie or Better % (BOB) Key Stat 1
Par 5 Scoring (Par 5) Key Stat 2
Ball Striking (BS) Key Stat 3
Strokes Gained Tee to Green (SGT2G) Key Stat 4
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Last 4 Years Course History
Weather:
Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather
Weather is not an issue this week.
BETTING PICKS:
First Round Leader
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.
Ben Kohles 90/1
Si Woo Kim 30/1
Scottie 10/1
Brooks 35/1
CBez 70/1
Kevin Roy 75/1
Adrien Dumont De Chassart 66/1
Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets
Hayden Springer 2.23/1
Mac Meissner 2.27/1
Adrien Dumont De Chassart 2.42/1
Matchup Tournament Bets:
Best matchup bet for the week.
More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.
More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting Sheet
Outright Bets:
2023 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.
This tournament, I would not have expected Clark, to be considered a good outright bet.
Bets:
- Si Woo Kim 13/1
- Jordan Spieth 18/1
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout 72/1
- Mac Meissner 65/1
- Adrien Dumont De Chassart 100/1
- Eric Cole 78/1
- Ben Kohles 250/1
-Austin Eckroat 96/1
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