Charles Schwab Challenge 2026: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)
- 4 hours ago
- 7 min read
Breaking down my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for this weeks tournament.
*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Red/Yellow
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
At the start of the week I really liked this week due to the soft pricing that we were getting, but due to many WDs, especially Bud Cauley, I am taking a more cautious approach.
KEY STATS:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Key stats this week are based on the 2018 results for the BMW Championship, typical Donald Ross courses, and the typical PGA Championship key stats.
Bogey Avoidance (BA) Key Stat 1
Par 4 Scoring (Par 4) Key Stat 2
Ball Striking (BS) Key Stat 3
Strokes Gained Approach (SGAP) Key Stat 4
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Last 4 Years Course History
Weather:
Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather
Weather is not an issue this week.
BETTING PICKS:
First Round Leader
IÂ will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.
Alex Smalley 40/1
Hideki 50/1
Russell Henley 33/1
Mac Meissner 60/1
Robert Macintyre 40/1
Austin Eckroat 75/1
John Parry 90/1
Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Eric Cole
Ryo Hisastune
John Parry
Michael Thorbjorsnen
Matchup Tournament Bets:
Best matchup bet for the week.
More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.
More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting SheetÂ
Outright Bets:
2023 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)
Picture 1Â = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.
We have 1 good outright bet this week which is JJ Spaun. I think that we are ok to place that bet.
Bets:
JJ Spaun 30/1
Rickie Fowler 25/1
Ryo Hisastune 45/1
Mac Meissner 60/1
Austin Eckroat 100/1
Data Tag: Core Plays
Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"
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