Breaking down my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for this weeks tournament.
*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.
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Below is a breakdown of the key data points we will be analyzing to identify the top golfers for this week and the reasoning behind it. The NineToFive Data provides curated insights to help us understand why a golfer is a strong or weak choice for the upcoming tournament. I will review the NineToFive Data's assessments and share my own analysis on these selections. To access this valuable data and more from NineToFive, simply click the 'join now' button below and sign up for just $10 a month.
Key Stats:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. When no course history is available I will difficult to compare course history. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Birdie or Better % (BOB)
Strokes Gained Approach (SG AP)
Strokes Gained Putting (SG P)
Par 5 Scoring (Par 5)
Effective Scoring (ESCR) - Combination stat.
This tournament is all about scoring, which would normally be the case but the weather could end up playing a big factor this week, and that is something I will touch on in the weather segment of this write-up.
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Last 4 years Course History
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Red
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
I really liked this week prior to the weather report coming out. The builds that I was making I was comfortable entering them, and it felt like some of the easiest lineup paths we have had during the fall swing. But due to the extreme wind conditions we have that will lead to this tournament being much more difficult to predict, and there will be a lot of luck with having a good week simply due to getting the correct weather wave down. I am stacking my lineups with only AM, and only PM tee times.
Weather:
Now looking at the hourly wind conditions I do not see a specific weather advantage as it sits right now, that includes for showdown slates. The wind dies down slightly in the evening but it does not seem enough to target a specific tee time for a specific reason. Rather I am basically spliting my showdown exposures. AM only in half, and PM only in half. This will likely be the case for the full week.
For main slate builds I am doing about an even split of 33% AM only, 33% PM only, and 33% no weather advantage.
Below are the top 20 WORST Weather Specialist (Wind about 25+)
Betting Picks
First Round Leader
AM Tee Times
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 7 for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)
3 Ball Bets:
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon.
Outright Bets:
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statical thresholds used to determine winners.
I have a tough time getting to Vegas, and Hubbard as outright bets this week. The rest I could see getting to. Below are my picks for outright bets.
My Outright Bets:
Alex Smalley
Greyson Sigg
Lanto Griffin
Seamus Power
Ben Griffin
Justin Lower
Vince Whaley
Rico Hoey
Data Tag: Core Plays
Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag.
Takeaways:
Again this week we have one player that is considered a Core Play by the Data, and that is Ben Griffin. The one flaw that Griffin has is a missed cut on the number at the Shriners. He has followed that up with two top 25 finishes. He ranks top 10 ore better in all the key metrics.
Data Tag: High Exposure
Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
Takeaways:
Seamus Power has the same flaw that Ben Griffin has and that is one recent missed cut. On Top of that he is not an elite stat fit, but overall he ranks out as the best play this week. He is very easy to get to.
Hughes, and Hoey are great plays on paper minus not having course history. Still they have some of the best form in the field, and I am going out of my way to roster both.
I do worry about the price of Doug Ghim, because he has missed two straight cuts at this event. Still he ranks out in the 3rd best form in the field. I view him more as a Mid Exposure play.
Patrick Rodgers just does not have my full trust at his price I view him more as a lineup filler.
Data Tag: Mid Exposure
Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.
Takeaways:
I view Lanto Griffin, and Justin Lower as two players I am going out of my way to target, especially Lanto at his price where really all we would be asking for is a made cut, and I think he will do that.
Mark Hubbard is a golfer that has played well at this track, and I believe that is due to the length of the course being short. Will the wind hurt him is my biggest worry.
Data Tag: Low Exposure
Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays
Takeaways:
I am a little bit surpised at the lack of love that the Data is giving Alex Smalley, Lucas Glover, Vince Whaley, and Greyson Sigg. Those are all golfers that I view as pretty solid play this week. They all rank top 20 or better in recent form, and all have had upside finishes recently. I think they are all pretty strong plays.
Player Pool
Player Pool Breakdown:
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week. (This is based off of 20 entry max lineups. For 150 entry lineups I will open up the player pool slightly more but this will be determined by the lineup optimizer)
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Griffin, Power, Hughes, Hoey, Lower, Smalley, Sigg, Lanto
GPP: McNealy, Hubbard, Ghim, Nico E, Vegas, Yu
SAMPLE LINEUP:
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.
AM Only Build
PM Build
Favorite Build:
Optimal Build:
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