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PGA DFS - 3M Open

Updated: Jul 22, 2020


Last week was such a roller coaster of emotions from start until finish! With Xander and English moving into a top 15 finish I was able to salvage a lot of my week. Also the top 3 plays on the board all made the cut, but they all really struggled on Sunday. Combine Hadwin, Cantlay, and Woodland shot over +20! The biggest probably that came last week were the last two holes on Friday's morning wave where it looked like Webb, Taylor, and Berger were all going to make the cut. Then they all double bogey'd any chance of that. Still there was room for some great lineups especially with the carnage that took place on Sunday. Regardless of if you did well, or struggled the last two weeks, the closing stretch should be more profitable! PS I am so happy to have that high variance course over with!


Now onto TPC Twin Cities for the 3M open. I was really looking forward to this event Sunday evening, then a lot of the players I wanted to be on decided not to play. Making this a very difficult week, but one that could be very profitable because of that. Typically on these lower caliber field events we do not get contest sizes like we have this week. Normally lower caliber field events like this are the ones where 925 nation has hit some big wins. I hope that continues this week as well. *Should note 4/6 looks like it will be the norm this week for DK builds.


SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow/Red

Tough week to predict as a whole, but we do have a good enough sample size to determine was we should do. It is a limited Yellow week this week, due to the poor quality of the field. I still think there is room from some big wins, and some lineup paths to be able to cash in Cash contests.

KEY STATS: Birdie to Bogey Ratio (B2B), Total Driving (TD), Ball Striking (BS), Strokes Gained Approach (SG A), Strokes Gained Off Tee (SGT)

This is a strokes gained paradise! Give yourself the a lot of chances to make birdies, and make a few!

BETTING:


On the top end of betting, there are 4 stand out bets I really like. Tony Finau (14/1), Tommy Fleetwood (17/1), Paul Casey (18/1), and Harris English (35/1). If it gets windy, like the weather is showing that would favor Casey, English, and Fleetwood a ton too.


Now this is a week in which I think anyone in the 925 player pool can win, and I'd give it about an 85% chance that a player from the player pool is going to win!


Chesson Hadley has some great upside this week to top 20, while Werenski, and Stallings have a high likelihood to top 40! Jhonattan Vegas is going to be a top 10 / winner hit or miss play this week.


Other Outright Bets:

 








SLATE BREAKDOWN:

This is a course made for DJ, if you want to pay up for him you can, but I feel it limits your build a ton!


Tony Finau: This week is set up so well for Finau to go off, and finally break through with a win. A third of his finishes on tour this sea son have been top 5 finishes, and he has only missed 3 cuts on the season. Finau finished T23 here last year, and grades out as a top 3 stat fit. He ranks top 30 in SGT, SG, SGT2G, SGA, and BoB. It is a weak field this week as well, the stars are aligning for Finau this week, can he pull through?


Paul Casey: I do not think we have to worry about Casey making a Quad again to miss the cut by one like he did last week. Last week was his first missed cut on tour as well. Casey is a great play this week, and ranks out as someone who should push for the title. Casey and Finau are the clear cut pay up options this week.


Lucas Glover: Hate paying up for Lucas Glover this week, and I hate that he is a core play this week, but it is warranted. T7 finish as this course last year, a top 10 finish at a comp course as well. Ranks out as a top 15 stat fit, and a top 10 play overall. He is simply checking all the boxes: Recent Form, Stat Fit, and Course history.


Harris English: 65% of English's starts have been top 20 finishes this season. You could actually argue he is the best golfer in the field (just looking at this season). Now we know he is not, but the point still stands, English is having a career year, and that could continue this week. Even with a missed cut last year at this course English still ranks out as a top 2 stat fit, and top 2 play this week. The missed cut last year is a little bit of a worry, but English is playing elite this year.


Doc Redman: I worry about Redman this week, it could be a trap to play him this week. He missed the cut here last year, and missed the cut at one of the comp courses. He missed the cut last week as well. But he is an elite stat fit. Heck Doc Redman is simply a cheaper version of Paul Casey this week. Feel like Redman is a solid high upside GPP play, but also has an ok chance to miss the cut

Henrik Norlander: I hate paying up for plays like Norlander, where you know that they have benefited from being a "course specialist" the last few weeks. Tough courses where you need to put your shots in smart places, and miss in even better places. He did just that, and has made 4 straight cuts including two top 12 finishes. This is still somewhat a course you need to be smart with which is why I am paying up for him. He ranks top 30 this week in stats and top 15 in the model. He had a T9 finish at one of the comp courses.


I can't write up everyone, there's a ton of great GPP plays.


Jhonattan Vegas: Vegas is an elite stat fit in SGT, Ball Striking, Total Driving, and BoB. He has made 3 out of 4 cuts since the break. The cut was in his last event however. This course sets up great for Vegas. The Players is a comp course that I couldn't use this week because well we only had one round of it, but Vegas did well in that one round as well. Vegas is a great high upside GPP play.


Will Gordon: Gordon did miss the cut at the Rocket Mortgage, but he still shoot under par 2 straight rounds before that he had 3 straight top 21 or better finishes. Gordon ranks out well in the two most key stats this week Ball Striking - 36th, and BoB - 15th. He also ranks 16th in SGT. Meaning if he stays out of trouble he could pull off the Matthew Wolff of last year.


Richy Werenski: I almost put Werenski as a core play this week, as he grades out as a core play, but that was a little bit too risky for me this week! He had a T46 finish here last year, and a T47 finish at one of the comp coruses. He has made 5 straight cuts on tour, including 4 straight since break with a T58, T46, T21, and a T35. Seemingly trending iin the right direction. He doesn't do anything elite or poor. Just a guy that most likely will make the cut. At his price I will take that.


Scott Stallings: Stallings had a top 20 finish at one of the comp courses, and made the cut here last year. He has made the cut in 8 out of his last 10 events, including 4 straight since the break including a top 6 finish at the travelers. A ranks out as a top 30 stat fit. He also should make the cut.


Sam Ryder/Pat Perez: Both grade out slightly worse than everyone above, but it is very close. Heck Ryder might hold the most GPP upside out of any player in this range, and Perez just seems like a made cut coming.



Adam Schenk: Schenk is a very interesting play, which is what we will get out of the value tier this week. He is a great ball striker, and total driver, and he isn't going to make many mistakes. This aligns for him to make the cut at this event. But he missed the cut at this event last week.


Chesson Hadley: Hadley is honestly a great play this week, as he could hold some great upside, especially compared to some of the higher priced players. Hadley is an elite stat fit ranking top 15 this week. He has made 3 out of the last 4 cuts, and has went under par in all 4 events. Hadley had missed the cut here last year, and at one of the comp courses. That is the worry, but given the stats I will take him as a play for the what is a risky value tier this week.


Johnson Wagner: Wagner is a poor mans version of Norlander, Good BS, and TD, won't make many mistakes as well. He made the cut here last year finishing T23, and finished T37 at a comp course. He has made the last two cuts as well.


Seamus Power: Power ranks 46th in Ball Striking, and 7th in Birdie or Better %. If he isn't making a bunch of bogeys he could do what Norlander did for us last week. Which is the default low salary value play that we just shrug our shoulders and say he should make the cut. He has made the cut in his last 3 events.


Stat Pull:

MODEL RANKING:


Both are available on the Website: https://www.ninetofivesports.com/pgastatsheet

 

PLAYER POOL:


Player Pool Breakdown: The player pool this week is adjusted to be riskier thus more upside.


Player Pool is rank in order this week.

 

CASH AND GPP PLAYS:

Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.

GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.


Cash: GLOVER, CASEY, FINAU, STALLINGS, WERENSKI

GPP: VEGAS, HADDLEY, BUBBA, NESMITH, ORTIZ, MERRITT, GORDON


SAMPLE LINEUP:

*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.



3 Comments


Don't really see Fleetwood mentioned is there something you have of why he don't fit here or is it just the worry on form

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925 Sports
925 Sports
Jul 21, 2020

Comp Courses by Tournament name: Sony Open, John Deere Classic, and the Players (the players we couldn't use this year)

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Keep doing the first look build ! what are the comp courses ?

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925 SPORTS

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