This week we have the 3M Open, which is one of my favorite tournaments each year, because it is a tournament that I have been to. I remember going to the first 3M Open tournament ever on a Friday, and watching the golfers that were suppose to be cut sweats all making birdies on the holes I was at, and ended up having a solid week as my golfers/lineup went 6/6, and this week it looks like we are going to have another good chance of putting together good builds.
There is a lot of soft pricing in the 7K pricing range this week, and a lot of great #'s out there for outright bets. The issue with this tournament is that a lot of the golfers that have won have been more random. Tony Finau winning last year was not random, but anyone that paid attention last year saw Scott Piercy dominate, and only lose because he got a blister on one of his feet which led him to barely be able to walk in the final round. Cameron Champ winning shows us how random this week can be, Champ had one good week going into this tournament, and since his win has really struggled to produce good results. Michael Thompson was a golfer that was a good play, but him winning was still a shock, and Matthew Wolfe winning now in retrospect was more random.
That being said a common trend we have seen is that longer hitters do hold more upside in terms of winning. This is a course that is water-line as well so we will want to be targeting golfer that have played well on courses with "Many" water hazards in play. To me this is the most unique characteristic of the course that we have this week.
We want to be targeting golfers that have a good birdie to bogey ratio, and they do this by peppering greens.
This Weeks Video:
- Effective Scoring
- Total Driving
- Strokes Gained Approach
- B2B Ratio
- Ball Striking
Yes there is a lot of water on this course but most of the water comes into play on a golfers second shot, thus we want to be looking at both Ball Striking, and Total Driving. Strokes Gained Approach will end up being more key this week most likely as a result.
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Last 4 years course history.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow/Green
The biggest issue I have this week is having too much salary left over which is typically a good problem to have, and I think that it most likely will be but this can typically be the cause of lack of clarity and thus creating a worse build then normal. All in all I do see this as a week to attack.
The weather makes it look like we are going to have some easy scoring.
The Open Betting Picks
First Round Leader
AM Tee Times
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 7 for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)
3 Ball Bets:
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon.
The Open Core Plays + Outright Bets
Core Plays are the golfers that I am prioritizing the most
I LOVE Cameron Young this week to get his first win, when you look at some of the past winners at this golf course he fits the bill of a golfer that should be able to win this week, which is why it is no surprise that he is the 2nd best specialist, and the 6th best stat fit.
He has now finished top 10 two straight weeks and has 5 straights made cuts. It is difficult for me to imagine him not having another great week this week. This is why I think I will be going out of my way to pay up for him. Really the only worry I have with him, and a lot of other golfers would be too much travel. Maybe their body is a little bit more tight than it typically would be. That is something we do not know, but worth mentioning that he flew from the JDC to The Open, and now back to the states. That is a lot of travel.
Sungjae Im I like because of the good course history, and because of his typical reliability.
Gary Woodland as a Core Play does really scare me, and if you do not like him as a core play this week I get it, but he has made 5 straight cuts in a row now, and did finish 11th at this tournament in his last start here. He also ranks top 10 in 3 out of the 4 key metrics. It would not be shocking to see him make the cut and maybe give us a top 10 finish. I think that is what we are looking at with both him and Sungjae as a play.
Mark Hubbard is somewhat of a standout play as he is coming in with the best form in the field, as his missed cuts have not been bad missed cuts, and he has several top 10 finishes over his past 7 starts. The upside with him as a play in undeniable. Tack on that he finished 16th at this event two years and and he becomes an even more appeal playing. The only worry with Hubbard this week is that he ranks out as the 29th best stat fit, but that being said he does rank out with in Strokes Gained Approach, and well in B2B ratio so that should lead to great results at of him this week.
Chez Reavie has made 8 straight cuts in a row on the PGA Tour and has made two straight cuts at this event. To me this price seems too cheap for the quality of play that he is.
MJ Daffue is a play too me that seems too cheap as he has made 5 straight cuts in a row now, and made the cut at this event two years ago.
Hideki is coming in as the top play this week and that is because besides one missed cut he has been a very consistent and reliable golfer. He is also ranking out 1st, 2nd, and 2nd in 3 out of the 4 key metrics. He finished 7th at this event 4 years ago as well. I prefer Cameron Young and Sungjae over Hideki but if you like Hideki more I wouldn't blame you.
Grillo is a golfer that when he has been on both this season and at this course has shown top 10 upside. He does feel a bit over priced here, and he is 100% not a good cash play, but at the same time he makes for a solid GPP play.
Jaeger, and Suh are both golfers that have been playing solid golf, lately with Jaeger having better finishes. They both have course history that leaves some to be desired, but overall I like the pricing that we are getting for both players as I believe both players have a good chance at meeting the cut this week.
Lucas Glover is a little bit to risky of a play for me to make him a course play as prior to his last 3 starts he was terrible, but in his last 3 starts he has finished 5th, 6th, and 4th. That is something that we cannot ignore at this price. Tack on the fact that he has also finished top 10 here and this price seems strange. Now the reason why we are getting this price is because he finished MC, and MC in his other starts. Still I think he is a quality play this week.
Adam Hadwin is another one of those golfers that has been a little bit too hit or miss, but given his strong course history it would not be shocking to see him have another good week this week.
Ryan Fox I actually see as more of a Core Play given this price, at the same time this just feels like the perfect let down spot for him as well. He has been someone that has played extremely well however making the cut in his past 6 starts on the PGA Tour. Based on the data we do have on Fox he is looking like a great play this week. He is part of the reason as to why I seem to have too much salary left over with my builds.
Guys I know that JT has been terrible but he hasn't consistently by terrible on a round by round basis. That tells me that he should hopefully be on the track of figuring this out. Obviously we are not playing him for safety, and I am not sure I see him being able to grind out a win as playing so poorly for so long, but this is a good get right sport for him, and he should be able to finish top 10 if he avoids the big mistakes.
JT Poston has made 3 straight cuts now on the PGA Tour including top 10 finishes recently. He has also made the cut at this track two straight times. He is a play that also makes a lot of sense in fair and balanced builds.
Greyson Sigg is a golfer who I thought would play really well last week, and he had a terrible opening round. He did have a bounce back round however and ended up missing the cut on the number. If he had made the cut last week I think he ends up getting a top 30 finish, and then his price would simply not be this cheap. Due to this I feel like we are getting some great value here.
Kevin Yu is an extremely good stat fit, especially this week at this course. He has already popped a few times, and given how strong of a stat fit he is it would not be shocking to see him in contention this week. That being said he is still coming back from injury so if he plays poorly and misses the cut that would not be shocking either.
Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays
Norrman and Rai are very strong GPP plays this week, and could be golfers that you look to in cash if you have salary remaining and are trying to find a golfer to spend more money on. That is basically how I have ended up on them this week.
Ramey, Knox, and Goya are players that should be cheap made cuts.\
Troy Merritt has a strange price tag this week considering he is from the twin cities are, and because he has made 2 out of 3 cuts at this tournament, and 3 out of 4 on the PGA Tour. It would not be shocking to us get a made cut out of him this week.
Player Pool Breakdown:
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this wee
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Young, Hubbard, Chez, Sungjae, Daffue, Woodland, Fox, Jeager, Suh, (Values if needed)
GPP: Glover, Sungjae, Hideki, Hadwin, Poston, JT, Yu, Sigg.
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive. (Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup
Typically I hate the idea of leaving $600 on the board, but this week it is a rare exception, as I believe we are getting some extreme price discounts on a lot of players, thus I fine leaving some salary on the board.
Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why. \
*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point. (Comes out Tuesday Evening)
Over Owned / Under Owned: