PGA DFS - ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL

Last week was a very solid week, and this was mostly due to lineup construction. Basically DK was forcing us to play Daniel Berger T4, Billy Horschel T42, and Harris English T6. Matthew NeSmith T38, and Harry Higgs T58 were such elite stat fits, that I ended up on them a ton in my builds. Last week was very strange as well, although I wanted to get Rickie into my builds, I ended up on Gary a lot more as he was slightly cheaper thus allowing me to pay up for someone as the 6th player in my build that was not as risky. Sungjae Im was a medium exposure/pivot play from the chalk for us last week. My main lineup ended up having Im (as the 6th player into the build), Im went onto win the tournament. This is why I always say to focus on which lineup gives you the most likely % chance to get 6/6 across the cut line. I used this strategy to choose Im over the other players around him last week. More times then not your main lineup is going to be your best lineup on average.

This week is going to be a slightly easier course, but not by much. Cut is typically around plus 1. So if there are some chalky players that miss the cut do not be surprised. This is a week in which the pricing is very soft, however, and if I believe that it will have a high % of 6/6 lineups due to how soft the pricing is. Lineup construction will be key this week. Fair and Balanced in Cash, but Studs and Dudes in GPP's.

Key Stats This Week: Ball Striking, Total Driving, Bogey Avoidance (BA), GIR, and 200 + Scoring.

This Week's Strategy:

Cash: Cash seems somewhat straight forward this week. There's a strong likelihood to get 5/6 across the cut line this week. My main focus will be on making a build this week that will have 6/6 across the cut line.

GPP: Every price point is loaded with great plays this week. But the value tier is one that presents the most upside. I think I will be playing Rory a ton, and mix and matching him with all the great value plays. This slate is really up in the air for roster construction.

Slate Confidence: Yellow/Green - Player Pool wise this is a green week, but where I dislike it is how soft the pricing is. Aka everyone else should be seeing the same thing, and if they are there is going to be a higher % of lineups that get 6/6 thus we do not have the typical slate edge that we would have.

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SLATE BREAKDOWN:

Pay up for Rory this week if possible. I still do not mind Fleetwood as well, he is simply a cut making machine. I also do like Im as a play this week. Just worry about the victory "hangover".

Bryson DeChambeau: The main reason I like Bryson this week is his price point. I think that he is going to be overlooked this week due to his pricing. Over his last 4 starts he has 3 top 10 finishes. Bryson has not missed a cut here in his last 3 starts, and had a 2nd overall finish in 2018. He is the second-best stat fit in the field as well. This is mostly due to how well he hits greens, avoids bogeys, and how accurate he is with the long iron. I fully expect him to get a top 10.

Xander Schauffele: Xander is truly the "X Factor" this week. He has 0 starts at this event in the last 4 years which may drive down his ownership. (as it should). But he is such a great stat fit. Much like Bryson, he grades out as a top 5 stat fit. I give Bryson the slight bump over Xander because of Course Experience, and because Bryson has been slightly better putting. Still think Xander has a great shot of going out and getting a top 10 finish.

Collin Morikawa: Morikawa actually played in this event when he was still an amateur where he finished T64. Morikawa does not have a missed cut on the year with most of his finishes being around T25. He is a solid stat fit, but I wish he had graded out a little bit better in the overall model this week. Still I really like Morikawa as a cash play this week, and if he gets hot with the putter he could really go out and dominate.

Tyrell Hatton: Hatton is priced pretty cheap this week. We are getting a guy whose average finish on tour this season has been 8th. (in three starts). He has not missed a cut here in the last four years as well. If he were priced in the High Tier I may have faded him, but at this price point, we are being forced to play him.

Billy Horschel: Billy Ho has not missed a cut here in the last 4 years. He ranks out as one of the best cash plays possible this week. He has made 4 straight cuts on the season, and overall is a great stat fit. He is checking all the boxes this week, at this price point, he is going to be a plug and play lineup filler. In GPP's I may, however, make pivots here.

Ian Poulter: I was going to be on Henrik Stenson a ton this week, but then I saw Poulter's price, and I just like this play much more. Poulter has made 4 straight cuts here and has made 7 straight cuts on the year. His form is starting to come around as well. I wish he had shown a little bit better stats this season. Still, in his made cuts he has finished T20 or better 4 times in just 7 events.

Harris English: English was an easy play last week, and now he priced down even more. I really do not get that. I am sure it has to do with his course history: 68, T22, MC, and MC. But overall that isn't horrible. Harris has been great this year though, 9/10 cuts made. 4 top 10s, and 6 top 20s. He is a top 5 stat fit, and ranked top 10 in my model this week. Sure if he is chalky we can pivot to McNealy, and Moore in GPP's but I like him a lot in cash.

Talor Gooch: This play is based on his likelihood to make the cut given his salary. Gooch has made 11 straight cuts in a row. He played this event in 2018 and finished T26. He ranks out as someone who should make the cut as well. Gooch lacks the upside this week but makes for a great lineup filler.

We have too many good value plays this week. Munoz, NeSmith, Griffin, Higgs, Long, Taylor, Rodgers, Hubbard, Redman, and Shelton are all value plays that I am looking at this week.

Matthew Nesmith: Somehow his price point keeps going down even though the form and the stats are trending better. Nesmith has now made the cut in his last 8 events, he is top 10 stat fit, and top 20 in my model this week. He is one of the guys that we have been on this whole season so I am not going to jump off now.

Nick Taylor: Taylor has only played this event once where he missed the cut, I'd imagine that is why he is a value play this week. He is a top 5 stat fit this week. The only stat that he does not rank T29 or better in is the +200 scoring, which sure is slightly worrisome, but at this price point, and with these stats, he is a value play that could really offer some huge upside.

Patrick Rodgers: Rodgers very much like NeSmith has seen his pricing continue to decrease even though he keeps producing. Rodgers has made 8 out his last 10 cuts. In his 2 missed cuts they were still very solid events/effort out of Rodgers. Over his last 3 starts, he has an average finish of 29th. If we get that out of a value play I am perfectly happy! He has made the cut in 3 of 4 starts here with two of them being T20 or better. If you want you could play Rodgers in cash.

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Stat Pull

*Basic stat pull for this week. Using Tournament History, Weekly Base Stats, and Core Stats for the Course. Stat Fit is the second column from the end, Model Rank is the last column.

MODEL RANKING:

* Typically the model should be used to determine which player you should be targeting based on their likelihood to make the cut, which is how I have this model skewed towards.

The more weeks we are into the season the more this will be accurate.

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PLAYER POOL:

Player Pool Breakdown: The player pool this week is adjusted to be riskier thus more upside.

Player Pool is rank in order this week.

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CASH AND GPP PLAYS:

Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.

GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.

Cash: HORSCHEL, MORIKAWA, ENGLISH. HATTON, POULTER, GOOCH, RODGERS, SCOTT

GPP: MOORE, N. TAYLOR, HOMA, BRYSON, XANDER, PIERCY, BUBBA, HIGGS

SAMPLE LINEUP:

*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.