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PGA DFS: Arnold Palmer Invitational 2024 - Betting Picks + Fantasy Golf Deep Dive

We will have two events on the PGA Tour this week, the Arnold Palmer Invitation which will be a 70 man field, and it will feature a slight cut with the top 50 golfers making the cut. (Golfers within 10 shots of the lead will make the cut).


The second event is arguably the better of the two events in terms of gaining an edge on the field, and the Sportsbooks, and that event is the Puerto Rico Open. These secondary events tend to provide the best ROI, I believe that is because less people care about it.


I believe both events will be pretty easy to navigate this week however, the API pricing is extremely soft, one of the best plays this week considering pricing is Harris English, playing him makes lineups much easier.


For the Puerto Rico Open Kelly Kraft is coming in at 70/1 odds even though he is the second best golfer ranked golfer in the NineToFive Model. I think it is worth noting that the model has been on average this year better at predicting 10 top finishers and golfers that would make the cut by an average of 7 spots. Meaning the NineToFive Model had the golfer ranked 7 spots better than DraftKings.

 

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Below you will see my breakdown this slate, calling out what data points we will be looking at to determine which golfers are the best plays this week and it will show why. The NineToFive Data is all curated data to specifically tell us and show us why a golfer is a good or bad play this week. I will be going through and putting my analysis to how the NineToFive Data views those plays and whether or not I agree with those plays. If you would like access to this great data, or the plethora of data that NineToFive offers click the join now button below and signup for just $10 a month.


 

Key Stats:

*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. When no course history is available I will difficult to compare course history. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.


  • Bogey Avoidance (BA)

  • Ball Striking (BS)

  • Total Driving (TD)

  • GIR/SG AP

This is another course that we have seen where golfers that are avoiding mistakes are going to be the golfers that will be the most successful, and unlike last week I do not see this course playing any differently than it has in the past because it does not need to.


The stats listed above are the stats that have led golfers to be successful at this event, although I think it is worth noting that this week the stats are a little less direct than norm, meaning there can be many ways to win, sometime SG ARG can be big, but that basically means that golfers were missing the green, which does happen a lot at this track.



Course History:

Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)


(Arnold Palmer last 4 years)


SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow

Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.


Since we only have salaries for the API I will be concentrating on that. and with the soft pricing I think it is pretty easy to do a studs and duds build. With around 70% of the field making the cut I think that this strategy will be the way to go.


Weather:

I do think the weather is something that will be worth monitoring as on Saturday and Sunday the winds are projected to be 15 MPH, which is it gets worse than that can start to change how the course will play.


Betting Picks

First Round Leader

AM Tee Times

I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 7 for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)


3 Ball Bets:

Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon.



Outright Bets:

Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statical thresholds used to determine winners.

I am a little bit shocked at how many "good" outright tags we have this week as over the past month we have basically averaged 1.5 per week, which in retrospect it a good example of why the outright winners have been more difficult to predict this year.


I will say I can get behind Sam Burns and even Cameron Young as winners this week. I might struggle to get to Xander ever though I love his odds, and eventually he will break through for another victory, and this does seem like a great spot for him just the course history is not as god as I'd like.


My Outright Bets:

  • Sam Burns

  • Cameron Young

  • Harris English

  • Adam Scott


Core Plays + Outright Bets

Core Plays are the golfers that I am prioritizing the most

Takeaways:

Scottie is (again) clearly the best play on the board this week, as he continues to provide desirable results, especially given the price tag that he has this week. I am very curious where his ownership will be this week, as last week Rory was clearly overpriced, and still came in at 30% ownership. This week Scottie is vastly underpriced in comparison, and given how easy it is to fit him into builds I would imagine he would be at least 35% owned if not more. I will attempt to be overweight on him regardless.


Xander has been a core play staple for over two years now, and he continues to play well for us week in and week out. It has gotten to the point where I can just assume without looking at the data that he will be a golfer I want to play. Now he is a Cali guy playing in Florida, and maybe his lackluster results here indicate that this is not the best spot for him but he still should make the cut and still provide a top 15 finish.


Sam Burns I will say I am a little bit more bullish on this week, and that is purely due to his recent form and stat fit. If it were not for his WD (which was due to poor play) I would like him much more than that. But he was someone that this time last year was not playing too well. So I am more willing to write that off for him since he is such a good stat fit this week. He might be slightly too risky to trust in cash but I have ended up on him a lot this week already.


Harris English is just an easy play this week, and regardless of his results he will be the correct play this week, because he is too good of a play at too good of a price. English has finished 2nd, 29th, and 9th at this event ranking him top 10 in course history. He is a top 12 specialist, and has shown enough upside recently

for me to love his upside this week.


High Exposure

Players that I am still going out of my way to roster, but have a slight pause for whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)


Takeaways:

Hovland and Rory have both had a lack of upside recently which is why I am knocking them, but they are both great specialists, and they both have strong course history. They should both be safe plays that also provide upside. I would just rather roll with Scottie, Burns and Xander more because they have been playing better.

Cameron Young is a slightly worse version of Sam Burns as a play, and heck you could argue that Cameron Young is coming in checking all the boxes this week. He is a play that I have a lot of exposure to already due to his pricing.


Corey Conners is a play that feels and looks on paper to be extremely safe. He has made 13 straight cuts in a row, while he hasn't shown upside he has certainly shown safety, and at this price with his course history I will take that. He should be a lock to make the cut, and give us a desirable finish.


Adam Scott I am a little bit shocked the data likes him as much as it does, but it makes sense as well, he has been playing well recently making the cut in his past 7 starts, showing upside doing that with multiple top 10 finishes. He is also a great specialist this week.


EVR has great form, and has been a cut maker as well, on top of that he is an elite stat fit, it would not be shocking at all to see him continue this great play that he has been on. In lineups that I have Scottie in EVR will be the next golfer I get to. (As well as English)



Mid Exposure

Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.

Takeaways:

These golfers are all golfers that I just could not make core plays or high exposure plays simply but they all were slightly worse plays to me compared to the golfers I listed above that are around their prices, because of that I bumped them down slightly.


Low Exposure

Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays

Takeaways:

I will say if Min Woo Lee does end up being chalk like my Twitter Feed has been suggesting then I believe Grillo and Putnam become better cash plays. They are arguably just as good of plays, and will come in much lower owned. In GPPs I get Woo Lee as a play because of his upside. Both Grillo and Putnam have made two straight cuts, and heck Grillo is top 12 in recent form. I would argue that I am too low on Grillo as is.


The other 3 plays are plays I have ended up on but have not went out of my way to roster.

 

Player Pool

Player Pool Breakdown:

Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week

CASH AND GPP PLAYS:

(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)

Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.

GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.


Cash: Core+EVR Conners, Young, Grillo, Putnam

GPP: Fitzpatrick, Rory, Hovland, Wo Lee, Morikawa


SAMPLE LINEUP:

*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive. (Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup


The lineup path is a little bit open this week, but I do like all the lineup paths I have gotten to, the issue is closing out the builds. Fitzpatrick and Scott are great plays, but I do worry slightly about their risk. Still they are too cheap and as last golfers into my builds I am ok with it.

Ownership Leverage

Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why. \

*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point.

As of posting this we do not have enough ownership to pull in prop projections.


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