The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am is a little bit different this year as it typically would be. It is not a no-cut 80 man field event. They are going from playing this tournament on 3 courses to just playing it on two. Spy Glass, and Pebble Beach Golf Links. Unlike previous years golfers will get 3 round on Pebble Beach, whereas in the previous years they would only play it two times assuming they made the cut. Spy Glass is typically the hardest of the courses, and so with that I will be adjusting the showdown data again this week. Golfers that have a Spy Glass tee time will get a decent knock against their fantasy score projection whereas golfers with a Pebble Beach tee time will get a bump in their fantasy score projection.
My hope is that with this tournament only being played on two years it becomes a little bit easier to predict, at the same time with this being a no-cut event I tend to want to steer into the variance.
Most of you know by now that the simple no-cut event strategy is to jam in the studs that are projected to play well, and then target a few near min priced plays that are projected to out produced their price tag, and/or finish in the top half in the field. Doing this strategy led to a pretty sweat free week at the Sentry Tournament of Champions.
(Main) Course Preview:
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Below you will see my breakdown this slate, calling out what data points we will be looking at to determine which golfers are the best plays this week and it will show why. The NineToFive Data is all curated data to specifically tell us and show us why a golfer is a good or bad play this week. I will be going through and putting my analysis to how the NineToFive Data views those plays and whether or not I agree with those plays. If you would like access to this great data, or the plethora of data that NineToFive offers click the join now button below and signup for just $10 a month.
Key Stats:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. When no course history is available I will difficult to compare course history. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Total Driving
Ball Striking
SGT2G
Par 5 Scoring
B2B Ratio
With this Tournament being played on Pebble Beach for one more round than it typically would I did take a peak back at the Key Stats that led us to be on Gary Woodland as a Core Play for his US Open win. The key stats that are listed above are those same key stats.
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Last 4 years. (event history)
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow
You will see below that wind could end up playing a factor this week, and with that this week could become even more difficult to predict for the most part I still think there is a solid edge going studs and duds as the public seems to still be lagging on that strateghy.
Weather:
I will be adjusting the specialist data to match the bad projected weather that we are expected to get this week. This most likely will not change much but it could be enough to get us on a play or two.
Betting Picks
First Round Leader
AM Tee Times
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 7 for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)
3 Ball Bets:
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon.
Outright Bets:
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statical thresholds used to determine winners.
My outright bets will be:
Interesting that we are only getting one golfer that meets the threshold of a good outright bet this week, and that is Max Homa. When you look at the data it is pretty easy to see why.
The best odds for Max Homa are 18/1 on BetMGM.
Outright bets that I like, Beau Hossler 45/1, and Hun An 45/1.
Core Plays + Outright Bets
Core Plays are the golfers that I am prioritizing the most
Takeaways:
The Core Plays are pretty straight forward this week, and yes I do think that these are all solid outright bets minus Patrick Cantlay. Cantlay is someone that just isn't in the best form to start the season. That being said he has played extremely well at this tournament in the past will and average finish of 6th over past 3 starts. Personally I would rather get to Xander as a Core Play over Cantlay, but Xander is being knocked currently for not having any recent history at this track. That being said the year that the US Open was held at Pebble Beach Xander finished 3rd.
From there Hovland is an easy click, he played well here last year, has been playing well for almost two years straight now. He also had a good finish at Pebble at the 2019 US Open finishing 12th. The best thing about Hovland as a play is his price. He is way cheaper than Scottie, and Rory.
Homa simply put is a stud on California tracks. He is the one play that I feel very strongly getting to this week especially at his price. He seems like one of the easier plays this week.
Wyndham Clark is an interesting play this week. I was worried about his motivation to play well in his last start due to the rumors that he might be going to LIV. Well it has all but been confirmed that he will be staying on the PGA Tour, and hopefully with that decision cleared up he has a clear mind. If he doesn't have those off the course distractions I think that he is an elite option at this price tag. Heck if Clark was slightly cheaper than Homa that would have been the more accurate pricing for him this week.
High Exposure
Players that I am still going out of my way to roster, but have a slight pause for whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
Takeaways:
Rory, Scottie, and Xander are all getting knocked by the Data Tag for not having a start at this tournament over the past 4 years. They are all great plays especially in this no-cut event, and especially where wind could be a factor. They are all golfers that produce great results in these type of situations.
One of the more interesting clicks this week is Tony Finau. I do not see myself ending up on him this week, but again in a no-cut event targeting a scorer is not that crazy, especially for Finau who seems to be too cheap.
The two plays that make me not want to do extreme stud and duds builds like I typically would are Byeong Hun An, and Beau Hossler. Both are golfers that I would not be surprised to see win this event this year.
Starting with Hun An he feels like one of the most logical options to end up on. The guy ranks 4th in the field is Ball Striking which is key because the rest of his key stats are not the best. So at the very least he is getting the ball to the green. That is the negative the good stuff is his form, two straight top 5 finishes He has course history here in the last 4 years finishing 37th at this event last year. On top of that he finished T16 at the US Open in 2019. He is an extremely appealing play this week.
Same could be said for Hossler who also has been playing well lately, in his last 4 starts on tour he has 3 top 15 finishes. He also has finished 11th and 3rd at this event over the last two years. It is clear to see that both Hossler and Hun An are too cheap.
Brian Harman is a play that I was not on prior, but I do agree with the data, he is a good play, and a play that is too cheap.
Mid Exposure
Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.
Takeaways:
I do think that plays like Fleetwood, Jaeger, Poston, Henley, and Noren are all great shoulder shrug plays. Not exactly guys I feel the need to go out of my way to play this week but all guys that are good enough plays to close at builds with.
I will say I am pretty annoyed at the Kevin Yu price. He is a golfer that is a pretty great stat fit, and has been in a good form, and produced well at this track last year. He is almost coming in checking all the boxes, and the same time he is a little bit too hit or miss. I was hoping he was cheaper so that he would just be an easy click value wise, now he is mostly just a high risk/ high reward play.
Brendon Todd is a golfer that I like for a cheap top 50% finish. He has played well at this tournament in the past and has been very consistent on the PGA Tour.
Taylor Moore is the value play that I have been going out of my way to roster a bunch this week. He has played well at this tournament in the past finishing top 20 in two straight starts here. He has made 7 straight cuts on the PGA Tour, and has been total driving and ball striking the ball extremely well this season. In studs and duds builds he will be the golfer I target.
Low Exposure
Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays
Takeaways:
The only plays here that I feel like are worth highlighting more are Denny, Jordan, Taylor, and Montgomery.
Jordan tends to play well at this tournament, but I do feel like he is going to come in over owned so I am happy the data does not love him this week either.
Nick Taylor has played extremely well at this tournament, and has a top 10 finish over his past 4 starts, he is a fine play.
Montgomery feels like a safe value play. He has made 7 straight cuts.
A few more sub 7K plays that I will be on are: Putnam, Schenk, Grillo, Kitayama and Hardy
Player Pool
Player Pool Breakdown:
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: NA
GPP: NA
SAMPLE LINEUP:
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive. (Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup
On a normal week I would love the sample build here, because we would be getting a lot of both safety and upside, and I do think that it is a great build, but if one of the mid tier plays struggles that could hurt this build a lot compared to a stud and duds build.
Ownership Leverage
Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why. \
*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point. (Comes out Tuesday Evening)
(Currently going through updates this fall)
As expected Jordan is coming in as a golfer that is a fade. I will say I am a little bit surprised by the love that JT is getting this week.
If Cantlay and Hovland indeed come in that low owned as does Clark this could end up being a huge week given the projected leverage that we are getting this week.
