Last week was another great week. The top playlisted last week Webb Simpson ended up taking down the tournament. Actually, if you take out one-shot by Gary Woodland two weeks ago we would be 5 out of 5 on the year. Woodland was a chalky disappointed that week, last week the Chalky play was Sungjae Im, this week I do not really think we will have a chalky play. The ownerships should be spread out which means that if the player pool hits it should hit big. You will see this strategy in the player pool.
This is a week where I think we will have a low % of lineups with 6/6 across the cut line, but the ones that do get 6/6 will have a really strong chance to win. I am going to be mix and matching my core and high value plays with the rest of my plays to give myself the highest upside.
This week Pebble Beach Pro-Am is played on 3 different courses throughout the first 3 rounds. This adds to another reason why I dislike this week. The easiest course in Monterey Peninsula and the Hardest is SpyGlass. So if you're playing the Showdown Slate attack the players in the pool when they are playing Monterey Peninsula.
The US Open was played here last year as well. It was played on Pebble Beach only. Played at a different time of year, the greens were harder to hit, and the rough was a lot more penalizing. I am not going to penalize a player for doing poorly in the US Open, and I am not going to go crazy if they did well. Looking at the US Open will just be "the cherry on top"
Key Stats This Week: Ball Striking, Total Driving, Par 5 Scoring, and Bogey Avoidance
This Week's Strategy: (Staying the same as last week)
- Cash: We can build a really safe build by building out of the 9.5K to 7.5K range. The likelihood of getting 6/6 across the cut line is the highest it has been all year. But if you believe 5/6 will be the norm and you want to get more upside in your build you can play one value play, and hope they make the cut.
- GPP: Play the core plays / high exposure plays - mix and matching them with the High Tier, and LOW Tier.
*By playing value plays you're typically reducing the % chance to get 6/6 across the cut line.
Slate Confidence: RED - The pricing is a lot higher this week for players. I typically hate paying up for players, and that is exactly what we have this week.
TOP PLAYS THIS WEEK
High Tier: DJ is DJ and if you can pay up for him you should. Cantlay is a really strong play and has the highest likelihood to make the cut.
Paul Casey: Casey is a play that I always like to roll with, but currently he is not the best stat fit out there, which worries me at this price point. He does, however, rank 24th in SG Approach, and 7th in Par 5 Scoring. Casey also has had a 2nd finish last year, and an 8th finish the year before that. In those years he had been Ball Striking better though. He currently ranks T66 this season. Casey has made 11 straights though.
Jason Day: Day has an average finish of 5th at this course over the last 4 years. He too is also not coming in with the best form into this tournament, but that has typically been normal for Day at this event. I fully expect him to be in contention to win. Still, I do not love paying up for him at this price point.
Branden Grace: Grace would be a play that I would load up on if he were 8.5K this week he is not though. Still I like him as a play, he has a T28, and T20 in his last two starts here. He ranks top 30 in BS, TD, and SG AP. He has also made the cut in his last 3 events with an average finish of 9th. I don't think we will get top 5 upside out of him this week but he does make for a strong play.
Mid Tier: I find myself trying to choose between Berger, Champ, and Noren in cash. I think I am going with Champ and Noren. They all have their weakness but they should all make the cut. I am hoping that they do and that this won't be the make or break point this week.
Daniel Berger: Berger is a very very strong stat fit this week. He is 7th in Par 5 Scoring, T19 in Total Driving, and Top 70 in Bogey Avoidance, Ball Striking, and SG Approach. His recent form has been great as we know, and I will continue to roll with him. Now he does not have any event history here in the last 4 years, but he did make the cut at the US Open last year finishing T49. Which was honestly impressive because he was struggling then.
Cameron Champ: Champ is a very interesting play this week, because of the general view we have as him as a player. He is a scorer, which in a 3 round cut I do like. But typically when you have a golfer who is a scorer that means that they typically Bogey a lot as well. That is the case with Champ but it was not as alarming as I thought. He ranks T87 in Bogey Avoidance not great, but not as bad as I thought. Champ is top 35 in TD, BS, Strokes Gained Total, Total Putting, and 18th in Par 5 Scoring. He is poor in Strokes Gained Approach, however. Champ is in great current form and did finish T28 in his first start here. I expect him to make the cut.
Alex Noren: Noren does not have any course or event history here in the last 4 years. That is the knock-on him this week. Besides that Noren is an excellent play. He is top 50 in both Total Driving, and Ball Striking. He ranks 16th in Strokes Gained Total, 4th in Bogey Avoidance, 18th in SG Approach, and 3rd in Par 5 Scoring. Noren does rank 200th in Putting. But he is in great form and has made the cut in his last 7 starts.
Russell Knox: Knox is either the best or second-best play on the board this week. (Depending on what your key stats are). He finished T14, T15, and a MC in his last 3 starts at this event. (The MC was 4 years ago) Knox ranks out as a top 10 stat fit this week. We know the current form that he has been in. I will continue to roll with Knox this week.
Adam Hadwin: Hadwin has been a stud this season thus far. We did worry about how he would play after a long absence, and he did what we thought he would do and made the cut. He has made his last 8 cuts. He has played this event twice in the last 4 years and has T18, and T39 finish. Hadwin is a top 10 stat fit this week as well. His only knock is par 5 scoring. Over 3 rounds if he is not scoring on par 5s it will limit his upside but he should make the cut this week.
Scott Piercy: HE'S BACK! Piercy is back in the player pool after around a 2-month absence. His stats are trending upwards, which shows in his recent form, as his finishes keep getting better. Piercy has always been one to grind out a cut which is why I like him. He has finish T10, T20, and T55 in 3 starts at this event. He also was a big factor in our success in the US Open making the cut (as a value play). Piercy isn't the best stat fit currently because he struggled early on.
Jim Furyk: Furyk made the cut at the US Open last year finishing T28. He has also finished T14, and T66 in his last 2 starts at this event. He is a top 5 stat fit this week, and has made his last 11 cuts. It is him or Knox as the best plays on the board this week. This does worry me, I do not like trusting Furyk this week. But we have to, which is why this is a red week.
Matthew NeSmith: NeSmith is a great stat fit, ranking top 15 this week. He is also in great recent form basically finishing T30 or better in his last 5 starts. He does not have any history here.
Nick Taylor: Taylor is going to be one of my most owned plays this week, which is also worrisome. You look at his recent form, and he has missed the cut in 2 out of last 4 events. I kind of write those off because he still shot under par. But we would still want to see those as made cuts. Taylor has great course history finishing T28, MC, T10, T30 and then a T43 in US Open. He is top 15 in Total Driving, and Ball Striking. He is 36th in Bogey Avoidance, 32nd in Par 5 Scoring and T30 in Total Putting. Those stats point to him making the cut this week. At this price point, I like that a lot.
D.J. Trahan: Trahan is a great stat fit this week. The guy just hits the ball well, statically speaking he is just a better version of Hideki. Yes Hideki is the example I used as they both can't putt. Trahan is T11 or better in Total Driving and Ball Striking. He is a top 10 stat fit this week. He also made the cut here last year finishing T18. His recent form is spotty, but we did not like him as much those weeks. He is a high upside play this week. A top 10 finish would not surprise me.
Doc Redman: Redman is a great stat fit again this week. Still love his upside.
For the rest of the plays in the player pool with exposures scroll down a bit!
*Basic stat pull for this week. Using Tournament History, Weekly Base Stats, and Core Stats for the Course.
* Typically the model should be used to determine which player you should be targeting based on their likelihood to make the cut, which is how I have this model skewed towards.
The more weeks we are into the season the more this will be accurate.
Player Pool Breakdown: The player pool this week is adjusted to be riskier thus more upside.
Player Pool is rank in order this week.
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Knox, Grace, Noren, Hadwin, Furyk, Berger, Champ, Taylor, and Casey
GPP: Day, Lashley, NeSmith, Trahan, Perez, Schenk
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.